2-4-T's Preseason Prognosis: Metropolitan Division Part 2

In anticipation of the coming season, the staff at Two Minutes for Typing will be breaking out our scalpels, slicing the divisions in half, and dissecting each team to see what will be making them tick this year. Of course some appear to be more ready for the rigors of a full 82-game compliment than others. With that in mind, we will be looking through the microscope at who will perish on the operating table, who has a fighting chance under the knife, and who will be sewn, stitched, and sipping ginger ale come playoff time. I present to you 2-4-T's Preseason Prognosis.

The Miss:

Carolina Hurricanes

Last Season's Result: 13th place in the East

Additions: Anton Khudobin, G (Boston); Andrej Sekera, D (Buffalo); Mike Komisarek, D (Toronto)

Subtractions: Jussi Jokinen, F (Pittsburgh); Joe Corvo, D (Ottawa); Dan Ellis, G (Dallas); Chad LaRose, F (UFA); Marc-Andre Bergeron, D (NLA); Jamie McBain, D (Buffalo); Bobby Sanguinetti, D (KHL); Tim Brent, F (KHL); Tim Wallace, F (SHL)

Available Cap Space: $4.885 million

The Carolina Hurricanes had a bit of a tough break last season. Jeff Skinner slipped further away from his Calder Trophy-winning season two years ago, falling from .768 points per game to .688 to .571. Jordan Staal played well in the second-line center spot he coveted during his time in Pittsburgh, but not to the level his contract dictates. And to top things off, not only has starting goaltender Cam Ward been regressing hard in recent years but he was limited to 17 games due to a knee injury suffered on March 3rd. Suffice it to say the replacement value of the two relief netminders left a lot to be desired.

The Hurricanes are kind of a tough team to pin down though. In 15 seasons of NHL experience after relocating from Hartford, they have made the postseason 5 times. In those 5 trips, they have earned 1 Stanley Cup, 2 Cup Final appearances, and 3 finishes at least as far as the Conference Finals. Might I add that not a single one of these accolades occurred in consecutive seasons. On the other hand, what has been consecutive has been the gradual tumble down the standings from year to year in recent memory.

It shouldn't be all doom and gloom just yet for the franchise but even with a healthy Ward the Hurricanes won't stand to benefit as much from the post-regulation "loser" point with the new league alignment. They will still receive a full complement of Washington Capitals match-ups but what they lose in games against the likes of a strong-scoring Tampa Bay and a rising Winnipeg they will certainly make up facing the Penguins, Rangers, Islanders, and Flyers more often. The Hurricanes went 5-12-1 last year against Southeast Division rivals and with the new alignment they might be better served testing the waters first before retooling to storm up the Atlantic coast.

Last season's Bruins backup goalie Anton Khudobin received a one-year deal to relieve Dan Ellis of duty and allow Justin Peters to continue improving in the minors. The 27-year-old has only 21 games to his credit but his small resume sees him with a 14-5-1 record with a .933 SV% and 2.03 GAA. Khudobin won't have the luxury of the Bruins tight defense this year but he should be able to post a better season than the .899 SV% and 3.29 GAA that the relief tandem accumulated in fetching a 10-19-3 record during Ward's absence. Still, the most recent update for Ward came in July which states he is improving and while he has far-surpassed the 6-8 week recovery timetable, getting himself back to playing shape is a whole other process.

The Jordan Staal signing is also an interesting subject to note because, while he is only one year into the ten-year deal, we can take a look at what he has shown us so far and what he needs to get to. The deal will count $6 million against the cap per year which puts him in the neighborhood of fellow centers John Tavares ($5.5 million), Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083 million), and Jonathan Toews ($6.3 million). The two problems I see here are that these three cap-comparables play on their respective teams' top lines and they also tend to produce at around a point per game. With brother Eric Staal firmly slotted into the number one pivot slot, Jordan will need elevate his game to show he is worth the coin and post better numbers than .646 points per game.

Speaking of the top line, things seem to be piecing themselves together on that front. Alexander Semin earned himself a five-year deal following his Carolina tryout after being chased out of Washington with the "enigmatic Russian" label. While he isn't putting the puck in the net at the same rate he has in the past, Semin made a strong impact in the assist column last year en route to 44 points in 44 games. Jiri Tlusty also had a coming out party of sorts, posting a career high 38 points and earning the rank of top scorer on the Hurricanes roster with 23 goals. Tlusty's shooting percentage was on the high side, closing the year at 19.7%, so we can expect that to be scaled back, but in a contract year he should have his sights set on maintaining his effectiveness.

The Hurricanes have some good players in place but there still leaves a lot to be desired as far as depth goes. They currently have only 19 roster spots filled and a hair under $5 million below the cap to address those needs. The top spots are spoken for but beyond that Carolina lacks the skill necessary to be considered in the conversation moving forward. In order to meet the full 23-man roster, Carolina will likely be spending very close to the cap for a team that is projected to sit well outside the playoff conversation. Brighter days are likely ahead for the 'Canes but it is too soon to tell how far off they really are.

The Hopefuls:

New York Rangers

Last Season's Result: 6th place in the East, Lost to the Boston Bruins during the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 5 games

Additions: Benoit Pouliot, F (Tampa Bay); Justin Falk, D (Minnesota); Aaron Johnson, D (Boston)

Subtractions: Marian Gaborik, F (Columbus); Wade Redden, D (St. Louis, Buyout); Ryane Clowe, F (New Jersey); Roman Hamrlik, D (UFA); Jeff Halpern, F (Montreal); Steve Eminger, D (UFA)

Available Cap Space: $2.181 million

A huge weight appeared to be lifted off of the shoulders of the New York Rangers this offseason. After some less-than-subtle jabs in the direction of John Tortorella and rather clear distaste at some of his motivational coaching tactics, the hard-nosed bench boss was relieved of duty. Odds are Torts was already on a short leash after losing in the Conference Finals to the sixth place New Jersey Devils the year before, but after alienating star Brad Richards, who had been signed to a nine-year contract in 2011, and failing to reach the same level of success in the lockout-shortened season, he turned out to be the odd-man out.

This year the Rangers will feature a fairly similar cast of characters that they finished the season with last year. Aside from letting Ryane Clowe stroll across the Hudson River and Benoit Pouliot leaving spring break, the roster is looking for another shot at a strong performance. The team does deserve another shot too, as former Vancouver Canucks coach Alain Vigneault is set to make his debut in the city that never sleeps.

With AV behind the bench, the Rangers should feel an increased liberty to open up offencively. Where Tortorella practically based ice time on a shot-blocking quota system, Vigneault has more success in his application of star players. And, as an added bonus, AV has more weapons to work with than he did in British Columbia.

The thing that will make this season very interesting for the Blueshirts is that aside from six players, as of now, every player on the roster is slated to come off the books after this season. Of course some extensions are in order, first and foremost for currently unsigned RFA Derek Stepan, but the Rangers could potentially have a strikingly different look even by the trade deadline.

If the Rangers hope to maintain their core after this year, the priority falls to resigning world-class goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. King Henrik recently spoke to the media stating "it's hard to picture myself playing elsewhere." While some may have taken this quote as a guarantee of his commitment to New York, the truth appears to be more cryptic than that. The situation as described by Bryan Winters at Blueshirt Banter is going to be a tricky exercise in cap management by GM Glen Sather. Basically Lundqvist should be considered on board if the Rangers commit to a further-extended core. To do so, however, they will need to shell out some significant cash on top of the substantial payday Lundqvist will certainly command whether he decides to stay in New York or tease the open market.

As a team, the New York Rangers are essentially facing a contract year. With the new coach they are facing a stretch of months ahead of the Olympic break to mesh things together quickly and prove they will be contending in the long term. If things go south early and each part of the whole doesn't pull their weight, they could be looking at a fire sale.

Washington Capitals

Last Season's Result: 3rd place in the East, Lost to the New York Rangers during the Eastern Conference Quarter Finals in 7 games

Additions: Mikhail Grabovski, F (Toronto); Martin Erat, F (Nashville)

Subtractions: Mike Ribeiro, F (Phoenix); Matt Hendricks, F (Nashville); Jeff Schultz, D (Los Angeles, Buyout); Joey Crabb, F (Florida); Wojtek Wolski, F (KHL)

Available Cap Space: $2.666 million

This season should be quite the test to the Washington Capitals. After shipping out any piece that could garner some sort of return prior to the 2004-05 lockout, the Caps entered a rebuilding phase revolving around 2004 first-overall draft pick Alex Ovechkin. Two more seasons saw Washington swimming at the bottom of the barrel in the Southeast Division before the team assumed an almost airtight grip around the top spot of that collective. While they never failed to make the postseason in what is now a six-year stretch, the end results were less spectacular with three first round and three second round exits in that time span.

With the dissolution of the Southeast, the coming years will be a true test of what General Manager George McPhee has built in the United States' capital city. Ovechkin of course is still the centrepiece of the organisation but with forwards Nicklas Backstrom and Brooks Laich and defencemen Mike Green and John Carlson the Caps have a strong core group locked into the lineup. With Martin Erat, Mikhail Grabovski, Troy Brouwer, John Erksine, and Karl Alzner bolstering the roster, it wouldn't be a surprise to see this group go far in the regular season.

Contributing to the stability of the team is the situation in goal. Since 2009-10, the Capitals have seen Semyon Varlamov, Jose Theodore, and Thomas Vokoun cycle in and out of significant playing time before settling on the duo of youngster Braden Holtby and the more seasoned Michael Neuvirth. While Neuvirth was aggressively posturing himself to contend as the number one prior to the 2012-13 season, Holtby secured the position with a healthy 23-12-1 record on top of a .920/2.58 split. Neuvirth concurrently suffered a tumble in a mere 13 games played but at 25 years old still has some time to rebound and prove himself worthy of an increased look. The tandem is locked up for the next two seasons as well so there is time to strike the proper dynamic between them.

While the squad has a lot going for them, there still are a few question marks leading into this year. First of all, Head Coach Adam Oates will get his inaugural full season behind the bench. He did lead the team through all 48 games of 2012-13, in which the team was in dead last after the first month but catapulted up moving forward, and while a full 82-game schedule will be gentler to that sort of start, it remains to be seen how his systems translate. He deserves a lot of credit for recapturing Ovechkin’s scoring touch which lead the Great Eight to his third career Rocket Richard Trophy but this is, after all, Oates’s first head coaching gig so his work will have to speak for itself this year.

The second unknown is how the Capitals will adjust to the increased competition in the new alignment. They won the Southeast Division Title in five of the past six seasons (2011-12 was a weird year, I think we can all agree on that) but now that they won’t be facing weaker opponents to harvest points off of as often, they might be S.O.L come April. This is certainly a transition year for the Capitals, not because they have retooled their lineup on a large scale but because we should get a glimpse as to whether this team is for real or not.

At any rate, the Capitals are looking at an uphill battle in pursuit of their seventh consecutive postseason appearance, but then again which team isn't in the Metro Division? With the talent spread between these eight teams the margin for error will be very slim and the competition level will be close. Still, if the Capitals do make the playoffs this year they won’t be leading the pack.

The Lock:

Pittsburgh Penguins

Last Season's Result: 1st place in the East, Lost to the Boston Bruins during the Eastern Conference Finals in 4 games

Additions: Rob Scuderi, D (Los Angeles); Jussi Jokinen, F (Carolina); Matt D'Agostini, F (New Jersey)

Subtractions: Jarome Iginlia, F (Boston); Brendan Morrow, F (UFA); Matt Cooke, F (Minnesota); Douglas Murray, D (Montreal); Tyler Kennedy, F (San Jose); Mark Eaton, D (UFA)

Available Cap Space: $1.098 million over cap limit

It's hard to argue against the Pittsburgh Penguins. They have two of the best forwards in the league commanding their top-six and are strong enough on the back-end to get things done. While the team is highly polarizing, especially when talking to proponents of Claude Giroux or Alex Ovechkin or an untampered draft lottery, the Penguins seem to net results year in and year out and make doing so look easy.

Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both forces in their own right and are the rare type of players who can elevate the play of those around them-just ask Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz, and James Neal. The drawback to the pair, however, is that they have been less than healthy over the past 3 years. Out of 424 possible games, the two combined for 248 since the 2010-11 season. And before you start assuming injuries affect their game, they have 338 points between them in that span, a 1.36 point per game pace which mathematically sees them capable of 111.52 points each over an 82 game season. Need I remind you they rarely ever play on the same line so imagine a world in which they did.

Despite the fact that they have some injury troubles, the rest of the team seems to fare reasonably well without them in the lineup. Taking 2010-11 into consideration since Crosby played 41 games and Malkin 43, the Penguins managed to accrue 106 points, good for a 4^th place playoff berth in the East but tied with their Pennsylvania neighbors for 3^rd best in the league. Jumping ahead to last season, with Sid missing 12 games and Malkin sitting for 15, Pittsburgh still managed the same number of wins as the Blackhawks (36) but lost the President's Trophy race by five points due to the extra point awarded for overtime losses.

Now the elephant in the room is Pittsburgh's playoff record in the past few years. While their M.O. of scoring more than the opponent carries them through the regular season, teams tend to tighten things up in their own zone for the postseason and that is where the Pens fall short. In the four seasons since they won the Cup, starting goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has accumulated a 3.18 GAA with a .880 SV%. The six-game series against Philadelphia in 2011-12 certainly drove his numbers down, but his lack of confidence lingered and this past year saw him get pulled in the first round in favour of backup Thomas Vokoun. In fact, Fleury was such a liability that after his 2-2 record against the Islanders, his only other appearance from that point on was a relief effort in a 6-1 rout at the hands of Boston in which he let in the final 3 goals.

Of course their shaky goaltending in Fleury isn't the whole issue and, with the vote of confidence he received from head coach Dan Bylsma, he isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Accountability has to be placed on the defense and thus far it hasn't particularly been built with keeping the puck out of their own net.

Last season they ranked 17th in the league in Corsi% in even strength situations when the score is within one goal with 49.1%, adjusted for zone starts. So they don't necessarily drive possession and they see a respectable margin more time in their own zone than on offense. To offset that, their shooting percentage was second in the league in zone-adjusted even strength situations with the score within one goal at 9.85%.

So what does that tell us? Well even with a glance at the Penguins roster and cap chart, we can see that they are a very top-heavy team and they can get away with middle-of-the-pack possession numbers because of the talent in the upper half of their lineup...at least in the regular season. After struggling through the Islanders and embarrassing the Senators, the Penguins hit a brick wall in the Boston Bruins, scoring only two goals and allowing twelve.

To address the issue this offseason, Pittsburgh let noted pylon Douglas Murray walk and acquired still-effective shutdown man Rob Scuderi from Los Angeles. While it doesn't seem like much, Scuderi should be able to slot in nicely in a top-four role and give Fleury some added peace of mind.

While the Penguins have a full roster signed, they are currently over the cap by a million dollars and change so they have some salary to shed by the conclusion of training camp. It remains to be seen who the expendable piece is but there is no doubt in my mind that they will easily punch their ticket to a playoff berth for the eighth season in a row. What comes after that, however, is the real test to this franchise.

Also Read:

Atlantic Division Part 1

Atlantic Division Part 2

Pacific Division Part 1

Pacific Division Part 2
Metropolitan Division Part 1