2-4-T's Preseason Prognosis: Metropolitan Division Part 1

In anticipation of the coming season, the staff at Two Minutes for Typing will be breaking out our scalpels, slicing the divisions in half, and dissecting each team to see what will be making them tick this year. Of course some appear to be more ready for the rigors of a full 82-game compliment than others. With that in mind, we will be looking through the microscope at who will perish on the operating table, who has a fighting chance under the knife, and who will be sewn, stitched, and sipping ginger ale come playoff time. I present to you 2-4-T's Preseason Prognosis.

The Miss:

New Jersey Devils

Last Season's Result: 11th place in the East

Additions: Jaromir Jagr, F (Boston); Cory Schneider, G (Vancouver); Ryane Clowe, F (N.Y. Rangers); Michael Ryder, F (Montreal)

Subtractions: Ilya Kovalchuk, F (KHL); David Clarkson, F (Toronto); Henrik Tallinder, D (Buffalo); Alexei Ponikarovsky, F (KHL); Johan Hedburg, G (UFA, Buyout); Steve Sullivan, F (UFA); Matt D'Agostini, F (Pittsburgh)

Available Cap Space: $3.879 million

What To Expect: After taking a look at the New Jersey Devils this season, it seems almost impossible to convince myself that this team is in anything other than a transition period. Between the 2011-12 season and now, four out of their top seven point-producers have left for various reasons, and the drop off beyond that is not gentle. Zack Parise and David Clarkson both left as unrestricted free agents, Petr Sykora hasn’t received an NHL contract in over a year despite only being 36, and Ilya Kovalchuk bolted to the KHL with 12 years and $77 million left on his contract. To top things off, after this coming season the one-two punch in net will be all gone as Johan Hedberg was bought out this year and franchise netminder Martin Brodeur is expected to retire once his current contract expires. That’s quite a bit of turnover for a team that made the Stanley Cup Final in 2012.

As for the forward group, the Devils have brought in veterans Jaromir Jagr, Michael Ryder, and Ryane Clowe to bridge the gap. While all three are capable of putting up respectable numbers, the thing to keep in mind is that they are 41, 33, and 31 years of age, respectively, with Jagr planning to retire at the conclusion of the season. Digging deeper, though, they have quite the shoes to fill as far as replacing production. In 2011-12, the four ex-Devils combined for 242 points over 321 games played, good for .75 points per game. In 2012-13, the remaining two combined for 55 points over 85 games for a .65 point per game ratio. The three recent signings over the same seasons combined for 161 points in 231 games and 89 points in 131 games at .70 and .68 points per game, respectively. While this seems like comparable replacement value, recall that the Devils finished in 6th place in 2012 and 11th in 2013. Clearly the team will be relying heavily on this group to assist in making a return to the postseason, yet the hard numbers pose that it might not be enough.

For the first time in recent memory, the situation in goal is also a big question mark for New Jersey. Martin Brodeur has been an absolute rock for the organization for the majority of his career but over the past few years he has been only average. Enter Cory Schneider, ex-goaltender of the future in Vancouver. In probably the most shocking moment of the 2013 Entry Draft, Schneider was traded to the Devils for the 9th-overall pick, putting to bed the Schneider-Luongo “controversy” plaguing the Canucks for the past few seasons. While Brodeur will be afforded his victory lap this year, it is wholly expected that Schneider will be gradually taking over the reins. Schneider is projected to be a highly capable starter but has yet to take on a full season as a number one netminder. This may not be an immediate concern, but with Brodeur shouldering 67 or more games in 13 of his 20 seasons, Schneider has quite the learning curve ahead of him with no apparent safety net in the system.

Another factor that could have a great effect on the Devils’ season is how their younger players fare this year. The team took a chance in signing forward Adam Henrique to a six-year deal worth $24 million. Regressing from .69 points per game in 2011-12 to .38 in 2012-13 is quite the step back, but even if he regains half of his scoring touch, the investment should be worth it for the Devils. Andrei Loktionov also showed some glimpses of potential this past season. While he never had a breakout opportunity in his time with the Los Angeles Kings, Loktionov earned some time on the top line last year and is on a short contract and a shorter leash to prove he has what it takes on an NHL squad.

Finally, 20-year-old Adam Larsson is in place to round out the defense. His offensive game leaves a lot to be desired, but he played in some valuable top-four situations mostly alongside Andy Greene. Desfensemen tend to mature later than forwards so Larsson absolutely has time to develop his skills, but with Alexander Urbom and Eric Gelinas on the doorstep, Adam Larsson might see his role diminished if the team hits a rough patch.

The one sure thing in New Jersey is the new ownership situation. Instead of being taken over by the league, Philadelphia 76ers owners David Blitzer and Joshua Harris purchased the team on August 15th, alleviating a potential bankruptcy filing and acquiring an estimated $200 million in debt. Aside from that, the Devils appear to be a team disassembled and should welcome a period of retooling if they can recognize that need. I wholeheartedly believe that New Jersey has some significant assets in place to be competitive at an elite level in the future. However with Brodeur and Patrick Elias, the final remaining members of the 2002-03 Championship team, approaching retirement, it might be more apparent now than ever that New Jersey needs to embrace a new look.

The Hopefuls:

Philadelphia Flyers

Last Season's Result: 10th in the East

Additions: Vinny Lecavalier, F (Tampa Bay, Buyout); Mark Streit, D (N.Y. Islanders); Ray Emery, G (Chicago); Steve Mason, G (Columbus)

Subtractions: Ilya Bryzgalov, G (UFA, Buyout); Danny Briere, F (Montreal, Buyout); Simon Gagne, F (UFA); Mike Knuble, F (UFA); Michael Leighton, G (Columbus); Ruslan Fedotenko, F (KHL); Kurtis Foster, D (KHL); Jody Shelley, F (Retired); Brian Boucher, G (NLA); Matt Walker, D (UFA)

Available Cap Space: $2.0535 million over cap limit

What To Expect: One of the simplest ways to define chemistry is to look at it as the study of change. The Philadelphia Flyers have had more than their fair share of change over the last several seasons and moving into 2013-14 it is no different. However, any good chemist knows that some of the reactions take a little time to develop. Paul Holmgren is not someone who understands the idea of patience being a virtue.

If we simply look at the goaltending situation for the Flyers, you can see exactly what I mean. Steve Mason and returning Ray Emery will be in the crease for 2013-14, but in the last 3 seasons we have seen the turnstile in motion for Ilya Bryzgalov, Brain Boucher, and Michael Leighton.

In our posts we always talk about the question marks for a team and what it will take to win. With the Flyers, this isn't as easy as saying what will work, what won't work, and what will need to happen for everything to come together. The only thing we can be sure of when we discuss the Flyers is that everything is up in the air.

Will Simon Gagne be resigned? Is captain Claude Giroux's injury going to slow the Flyers at the start of the season? Can Steve Mason ever repeat his Calder Trophy rookie performance? Where will Vincent Lecavalier fit into the Flyers offense? Is the aging veteran defense getting too old to play at the proper level?

If there weren't so many different questions surrounding the Flyers this season I’d have no problem putting them in the playoffs. Even with the Metropolitan Division, home to the Islanders, Penguins, Rangers, Capitals, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes, and Devils, the Flyers could fare well against the competition.  The big thing is how many of the questions will work out in favor of the Flyers and how many could be completely detrimental. Because of all these questions, questions no one has the answer to, Philadelphia will have to step their game up to the level of their 2010 Stanley Cup Final appearance in order to find themselves with a post season berth.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Last Season's Result: 9th in the West

Additions: Marian Gaborik, F (N.Y. Rangers); Nathan Horton, F (Boston); Curtis McElhinney, G (Phoenix); Blake Comeau, F (Calgary); Jack Skille, F (Florida)

Subtractions: Steve Mason, G (Philadelphia); Vinny Prospal, F (UFA); Derick Brassard, F (N.Y. Rangers); Adrian Aucoin, D (UFA); Derek Dorsett, F (N. Y. Rangers); Michael Leighton, G (KHL); John Moore, D (N.Y. Rangers); Colton Gillies, F (UFA)

Available Cap Space: $2.016 million

What To Expect: To say the Columbus Blue Jackets have had a rough go of things would be putting things lightly. Their inaugural season came in 2000, and since then they have made the playoffs once. The bad news is they met the defending champion Detroit Red Wings in the first round and were effectively handled in four games. Aside from that, their results have been...unspectacular. Prior to 2012-13, they have finished above 13th in the conference only two times and above 4th in their division once. In that same time frame, they have managed a winning record once and haven't posted a single positive goal differential. And to top things off, after their 30th place 2011-12 season, they lost the first-overall draft pick to Edmonton in the lottery, traded captain Rick Nash to the New York Rangers at his request, and had the All-Star Game they were slated to host postponed until 2015 due to the lockout and next year’s Winter Olympics.

And then 2013 happened. Coming into the season, many predicted the Blue Jackets to come out at the absolute bottom of the barrel once again. This wasn't exactly a bold guess given their past performances, but with the departure of Nash and the question marks surrounding the tandem in net, there wasn't much there to convince the hockey world otherwise. With all these factors considered, Columbus rode their balanced lineup and Vezina Trophy-winning performance from Sergei Bobrovsky to a 9th place finish with only the ROW tiebreaker standing in the way from replacing Minnesota in the final Western Conference playoff spot. Despite losing Nash's scoring touch, the Blue Jackets also achieved the franchise’s first positive goal differential, finishing with a modest +1.

If we dip into advanced statistics, the question becomes is this the Blue Jackets turning a new leaf or was this past year lightning in a bottle? Looking at defensive players with at least 28 games of service, only Adrian Aucoin finished with a PDO below 1.000 and only James Wisniewski had a Corsi-For% at or above 50%. For those new to these metrics, PDO is the sum of on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage and tends to hover around 1.000 over a long enough sample size. Statisticians generally consider PDO a "luck" stat. Corsi is the sum of shots that hit the net, shots directed towards the net that missed, and blocked shots. For simplicity's sake, consider Corsi a measurement of possession so a Corsi-For% above 50% suggests these players contribute to offensive zone time while those with Corsi-For% below 50% tend to be hemmed in on defense more often.

Before I lose those without a penchant for this level of statistical analysis, the reason I bring these numbers to light is to show that the Blue Jackets benefited greatly from the hot hand of Bobrovsky. Should he suffer a setback, and conventional wisdom suggests he will, the Blue Jackets will need to increase their offensive output to help make up the difference. The acquisitions of Marian Gaborik at the trade deadline as well as Nathan Horton at the start of free agency signal Columbus’s desire to remain relevant come April, it is just too soon to tell for sure whether this is enough to build off of their relative success from last season.

Arguably the biggest improvement Columbus made is actually in the front office. On February 12^th, Director of Hockey Operations John Davidson fired General Manager Scott Howson and replaced him the following day with Jarmo Kekalainen, the first ever European-born GM in the NHL. No stranger to North America, Kekalainen has a resume of 55 games over six years as a player in the NHL. His claim to fame, however, is his time spent between 1995-2010 in the front offices of the Ottawa Senators and later the St. Louis Blues. His primary role with both teams was in dealing with amateur scouting and had a hand in the drafting of noted players such as Marian Hossa, Martin Havlat, David Backes, T.J. Oshie, and Alex Pietrangelo. Expectations are high for Kekalainen to build Columbus into a strong competitor through the draft but it is no doubt that by acquiring Gaborik and Horton as well as trading away one-hit wonder goaltender Steve Mason Jarmo is starting to put his stamp on this club.

While the story of Columbus's relative success this past year was heart-warming for many hockey fans across the league, there is still plenty of work to be done. Yes they have pieces in place to make them successful, and yes they showed that they have the ability to do well in one of the hardest (now disbanded) divisions in the league, but because this is a new look for them they are nothing more than a “maybe” for the upcoming season. Especially with the shortened season behind them and a new-look division ahead, I would call them the maybe-ist of the maybes in this coming year. This is a great opportunity for them to leave their dismal showings in the past and capitalize on the effort they exhibited by even being in the conversation last year. It might be too soon to jump on the bandwagon, but just as a GM will offer a player a short-term bridge contract before being fully convinced their young asset is for real, this year could be a “show me” season for the entire Columbus organization.

The Lock:

New York Islanders

Last Season's Result: 8th in the East, Lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins during the Eastern Conference Quarter Finals in 6 games

Additions: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, F (Minnesota); Cal Clutterbuck, F (Minnesota); Peter Regin, F (Ottawa)

Subtractions: Mark Streit, D (Philadelphia); Brad Boyes, F (UFA); Rick Dipietro, G (UFA, Buyout); Marty Reasoner, F (UFA); Keith Aucoin, F (St. Louis); Radek Martinek, D (UFA); David Ullstrom, F (KHL); Jesse Joensuu, F (Edmonton)

Available Cap Space: $15.693 million

What To Expect: Money is of course an important commodity in the NHL, and with a lot of teams spending towards the upper limit of what is allowed, we sometimes forget that a decent handful of teams are overstepping internal budgets to chase some perceived level of competitiveness. Sure, you have to spend to retain or acquire top-level talent but general managers can get greedy and, as we saw with free agents David Clarkson and Ryane Clowe this offseason, tend to overpay and drive up the market. So often we are fixated on the ceiling that we don’t take a moment to survey the floor.

Glen Sather, during his time in Edmonton, is infamously quoted as saying “If I had the Rangers payroll, I’d never lose a game” (the exact words always vary, but the message is clear). With over 30 seasons on his GM resume and 12, with his money where his mouth is, in the Rangers organization, Sather surely has learned by now that deep pockets do not always spell success. In fact, maybe he should take a page from his neighbors in Uniondale that patience and conservative yet smart spending can still make you a force in this league.

The New York Islanders have been perennially towing the line along the salary cap floor and, similarly, the bottom of the standings. Last season they traded for goaltender Tim Thomas, who opted to take a year off, just to be compliant at the lower limit without spending any actual dollars. Aided by poor performances for the greater part of the past two decades, a grossly outdated home arena, and a less-than-ideal location, the Islanders have struggled at the turnstile and, therefore, with the ability to throw cash around.

Because they lack the ability to acquire high-profile free agents, the Islanders are almost forced to build through the draft. Of the current 23-man roster as listed on CapGeek, 10 have been drafted through the Islanders organization and 9 of those 10 have come since the lockout of 2004-05. Not one of those 9 players is over the age of 26 but given the youth here only 2, including backup goaltender Kevin Poulin, have played in fewer than 180 games. It is slowly being recognized that General Manager Garth Snow is probably one of the most underrated at his position in the league because of what he does with less. While he doesn't dominate headlines around the trade deadline and free-agent frenzy, he often finds bargains on the market to bolster his collection of homegrown talent that has been developing in a difficult division.

As with many teams, the big question comes down to the situation in net. Evgeni Nabokov is 38 years old and still shouldering heavy loads every year, most recently appearing in 41 of 48 games. While he has proven he is as consistent as you could ask for, he is known to falter at times and has thus never established himself as a true elite-level talent. His body of work from the past two seasons were almost identical as were his primary numbers but the main difference in his performance from 2011-12 to 2012-13 came down his record, improving to 23-11-7 from 19-18-3. Over the same time-frame, the team as a whole improved to 2.895 goals for per game from 2.475. Similarly, their goals against per game declined to 2.895 from 3.11. Nabokov can be solid enough if the skaters in front of him pull their weight and they are starting to be capable of doing so. The rest of the season, however, comes down to backup Poulin as well as potential call-up Anders Nilsson, both 23 years old, to make the most of their opportunities in goal.

One image that will stick with me for a long time regarding the Islanders in 2013 happened after their February 11th game against the Carolina Hurricanes. At home in Nassau, the Isles lost by a margin of 6-4 and were visibly irritated, embodied by John Tavares staring dejectedly at the ice from the bench and Travis Hamonic smashing his stick on a stanchion on the walk to the dressing room. No team likes to lose, of course, but after years of being mediocre at best, the frustration at their failures appeared to be boiling over. They woke up the next day sitting in 14^th place in the east with a 4-7-1 record. Since that game the Islanders went 20-10-6, reaching as high as 6th place in the race with the Maple Leafs, Rangers, and Senators, and settled into 8th at the conclusion of the season on April 29th.

It might be hasty of me to say after a shortened season, but the Islanders are poised to be in the conversation on a yearly basis. Their year ended after losing to the Penguins in six games in the first round of the playoffs and aside from being shutout in Games 1 and 5, the Islanders proved they have what it takes to topple giants. Their biggest asset now is confidence and there is no time like the present to capitalize on the big step they took last year.

Also Read:

Atlantic Division Part 1

Atlantic Division Part 2

Pacific Division Part 1

Pacific Division Part 2