In anticipation of the coming season, the staff at Two
Minutes for Typing will be breaking out our scalpels, slicing the divisions in
half, and dissecting each team to see what will be making them tick this year.
Of course some appear to be more ready for the rigors of a full 82-game
compliment than others. With that in mind, we will be looking through the
microscope at who will perish on the operating table, who has a fighting chance
under the knife, and who will be sewn, stitched, and sipping ginger ale come
playoff time. I present to you 2-4-T's Preseason Prognosis.
The Miss:
Colorado Avalanche
Last Season's Result: 15th in the West
Additions: Nathan MacKinnon, F (Entry Draft); Alex Tanguay, F (Calgary); Cory Sarich, D (Calgary); Andre Benoit, D (Ottawa)
Subtractions: David Jones, F (Calgary); Milan Hedjuk, F (UFA); Shane O'Brien, D (Calgary); Chuck Kobasew, F (UFA); Ryan O'Byrne, D (KHL); Greg Zanon, D (Buyout, UFA); Aaron Palushaj, F (Carolina)
Available Cap Space: $10.289 million
What to Expect: Things did not quite bounce in favour of the Colorado
Avalanche this past year. After teasing the playoff bubble in 2011-12, the Avs
revisited the bottom of the conference barrel and finished 3 points ahead of
last-in-the-league Florida. I just hope they had fun in Vegas at the end of the
year.
The Colorado Avalanche appears to be a team that is very
top-heavy but lacks any significant talent elsewhere in the lineup. This was
most strongly reinforced by this year's entry draft where, with the
first-overall pick, the Avalanche failed to address an immediate need by taking NHL-ready
defenceman Seth Jones but instead went with centreman Nathan MacKinnon, a solid
pick of course but in a position which they already have a significant amount
of redundancy.
Colorado has $38.2 million locked into their compliment of
13 forwards for this season, ranking them eighth in cap spent in the league, but they seem to be searching in the bargain bin for their other positions. While
this seems to work for the likes of the St. Louis Blues and the New York
Islanders, Colorado's 77-104-21 record over the past three seasons goes to show
they haven't touched on the successful formula for this style of team
management.
This imbalance tied to their undesirable results more than
likely led to tightening the reins on General Manager Greg Sherman. While
Sherman retains his position in the organization, the Avs promoted Joe Sakic to
Executive Vice President of Hockey Operations and hired Patrick Roy to Head Coach
and VP of Hockey Operations. Both Sakic and Roy are ex-Avalanche players, Hall-of-Famers, and
2-time Stanley Cup winners. The pair will be in charge of overseeing day-to-day
operations and will lend significant input on the team moving forward.
The Avalanche is a team that is positioning itself for the
future. In the offseason, they extended 20-year-old captain Gabriel Landeskog
for 7 years and $39 million. Similarly, forward Matt Duchene received a 5-year,
$30 million payday which will activate after this coming year. Duchene's
contract should set a benchmark for pending RFA Ryan O'Reilly, an early season
holdout before Calgary forced Colorado's hand with an offer sheet, should he continue
his strong production.
Still, defense remains the main question mark for the
organization. The tandem in net, Semyon Varlamov and Jean-Sebastian Giguere, is
a serviceable duo combining youth and experience but neither is strong enough
to steal games without support in their own zone. Erik Johnson, a former
first-overall pick, turned out to be a bust as a scoring blue-liner, Jan Hejda
is decent but isn't the type of player to eat minutes, and new addition Cory
Sarich isn't destined for more than an anchor role on the second or third line.
22-year-olds Tyson Barrie and Stefan Elliot are poised to become solid
contributors for the team but it is yet to be seen if they are the solutions
for what the Avalanche lacks on the back-end.
Since the Avs decided to pass on
another strong defencive prospect, they effectively delayed another opportunity
to lock in that position on the team.
The Avalanche are essentially in the throes of a youth
movement and with the new coach there are sure to be some growing pains. Roy
has eight seasons of major junior coaching to his credit, all of which with
winning records, so he has success in his experience with younger players. With
five players on the active roster aged 30 or above Roy has a chance to whip the
team into competitive shape but as is often the case this undertaking is quite
the process. While the team stands to make improvements for this year, taking a
squad from the basement of the league to the playoff conversation will prove to
be no small order. Count the Avalanche out of the playoff picture for this year
but keep an eye on them as their young stars rise.
The Hopefuls:
Nashville Predators
Last Season's Result: 14th in the West
Additions: Viktor Stalberg, F (Chicago); Seth Jones, D (Entry Draft); Matt Cullen, F (Minnesota); Eric Nystrom, F (Dallas); Matt Hendricks, F (Washington); Filip Forsberg, F (Washington)
Subtractions: Martin Erat, F (Washington); Sergei Kostitsyn, F (KHL); Hall Gill, D (UFA); Brandon Yip, F (Phoenix); Scott Hannan, D (San Jose); Chris Mason, G (UFA); Chris Mueller, F (Dallas); Jonathan Blum, D (Minnesota); Brian McGrattan, F (Calgary); Bobby Butler, F (Florida)
Available Cap Space: $4.672 million
What to Expect: After a less than stellar performance in the abbreviated season, the Nashville Predators are being talked about as they were when they had Suter and Weber playing side-by-side. However, the part of the conversation about Ryan Suter has been replaced with speculation on #2 ranked and #4 overall draft pick Seth Jones. As we saw in 2013, defense may win championships, but it doesn't guarantee you a spot in the playoffs.
Shea Weber topped out as the team’s leading scorer in 2013 on a Predators team that wound up 29th in the NHL in terms of goals scored. If the Preds want to make it back to the playoffs in 2013-14, the team needs to figure out a way to light the lamp.
With the goaltending spoken for in Pekka Rinne, the defense poised and ready to have a breakout season, the focus turns to the forwards. Veteran David Legwand was the team’s highest scoring forward in 2013 with 26 points (12G, 13A). Former Boston College star Colin Wilson who was sidelined with a shoulder injury last season should be ready to put up some serious numbers under the right circumstances. However, even with Wilson, the Preds don’t have a solid top 6 forward group. Legwand, Wilson, Mike Fisher, Patrick Hornqvist, and new-comer Viktor Stalberg cannot carry this team offensively.
At the 11th hour of the trade deadline, GM David Poile dealt the Predators' elite scorer, Martin Erat, to Washington in exchange for 2012 11th overall pick Filip Forsberg. Forsberg is the question mark moving into training camp but with very little competition, he could easily make the NHL roster and round out the 6th forward spot with his 2-way style of play. But besides Wilson and Forsberg the prospect talent pool in Nashville looks weak. This is something that will need to change if the Preds want to be competitive in the powerful Central Division. Poile is currently sitting $2 million below the salary cap of $64.3 million giving him little to no room to improve via free agency.
The Blackhawks, coming off of their Stanley Cup win, and the ever-improving St. Louis Blues are highly likely to top out the division but the Preds are still afforded the opportunity for a playoff berth in 2013-14. The problems that hindered the team’s development in the lockout shortened 2013 season should be behind them and I look forward to seeing those bright yellow sweaters step onto the ice come mid-April.
Winnipeg Jets
Last Season's Result: 9th in the East
Additions: Devin Setoguchi, F (Minnesota); Michael Frolik, F (Chicago)
Subtractions: Ron Hainsey, D (Carolina); Nik Antropov, F (KHL); Alexander Burmistrov, F (KHL); Kyle Wellwood, F (NLA); Antti Miettinen, F (NLA); Derek Meetch, D (KHL)
Available Cap Space: $3.324 million
What to Expect: The Atlanta Thrashers had a much similar run of things as
the Columbus Blue Jackets when they still called the state of Georgia home.
Each year had been a struggle to post a winning record en route to only one
playoff appearance and not a single postseason victory. Unlike the Blue
Jackets, the Thrashers seemed to cycle reputable players in and out of the
roster, such as Marian Hossa, Ilya Kovalchuk, Marc Savard, Danny Heatly, and
Kari Lehtonen. Even with a scoring punch and strong goaltending, the Thrashers
failed to find success in their 11 seasons in the league.
In the summer of 2011 the Thrashers would become the second Atlanta franchise to relocate to Canada, the Atlanta Flames being the first. With the
move to Manitoba capital Winnipeg a renewed excitement surrounded the
franchise. While the roster stayed relatively the same and the team faced some
difficulty as they maintained their Southeast Division schedule, many saw the
new-look Jets turning the corner into contention. In the two seasons since they
relocated they have yet to clinch a spot in the postseason but each year saw
them creep closer to a berth, ending with a ninth seed and four points out of
eighth last season.
With realignment seeing the Jets shift to the Central
Division, their window for opportunity might be cracking open. They already
have high-scoring forwards in Blake Wheeler, Evander Kane, and Andrew Ladd to
couple with a strong top-four on the blue line with Tobias Enstrom, Dustin
Byfuglien, Zach Bogosian, and Grant Clitsome. To add to the forward group
Winnipeg brought in wingers Devin Setoguchi and Michael Frolik, both of whom
showed promise as finishers in their earlier years but have seen their roles
reduced in recent memory. With both coming off of their respective contracts
after the conclusion of this season, Setoguchi and Frolik could use the change
in scenery to regain former effectiveness.
The crucial positions where Winnipeg falls short are down
the middle and in net. The current depth chart slots Bryan Little, Olli
Jokinen, Jim Slater, and Mark Scheifele at center from top to bottom. Little, a
natural winger, has been serviceable as a pivot while ranking 140th in the
league in faceoffs with 51.2% in 842 draws and 4th on the team in points with
32 over the 2012-13 season. Jokinen, at 34 years of age, is on a decline and
will likely play his way off the team unless he can show that his 14 points in
45 games this past year was a statistical outlier, not indicative of a
trend. Slater has proven to be nothing more than a depth player, only topping
20 points twice in his career. Scheifele is poised to be a strong option for the
future but has still to fulfill the first year of his entry-level deal. He has
been absolutely stellar in his time with the Barrie Colts of the OHL but in 11 games over two years with the Jets and 10 playoff games with the Jets' AHL
affiliate he has yet to translate his play to the professional level.
Shifting focus to goaltending, unquestioned starter Ondrej
Pavelec has been simply mediocre in his time with the franchise. Prior to 2012-13 Pavelec signed a 5-year
contract extension for a $3.9 million cap hit but with career numbers of .907
SV% and 2.95 GAA he has a long way to go to prove he is worth the commitment.
His contract places him among the company of Antti Niemi of San Jose, Jaroslav
Halak of St. Louis, and Jonas Hiller of Anaheim, all of whom have comparable
workloads and games played over their careers but have posted stronger resumes
over time. With backup Al Montoya finding little success in limited starts,
Winnipeg should consider turning to the wealth of available free agent
netminders to solidify their back end.
The Central Division waved goodbye to powerhouse Detroit and
team-on-the-rise Columbus so the door is wide open for any of
the four teams that missed the playoffs last year to make a case for contention. Realignment arguably made
the Central Division the most defensively stingy collection of teams in the
league so the Jets will certainly need to improve their goal differential which
has not been in the black since 2006-07. Their travel schedule significantly
improved so the Jets stand to have a better season from the past two.
Winnipeg's success will mostly depend on making the most out of the competitive
shift from the East to the West.
The Lock:
St. Louis Blues
Last Season's Result: 4th in the West, Lost to the Los Angeles Kings in the Western Conference Quarterfinals in 6 games
Additions: Jay Bouwmeester, D (Calgary); Derek Roy, F (Vancouver); Magnus Paajarvi, F (Edmonton); Jordan Leopold, D (Buffalo); Maxim Lapierre, F (Vancouver); Keith Aucoin, F (N.Y. Islanders)
Subtractions: David Perron, F (Edmonton); Andy McDonald, F (UFA); Kris Russell, D (Calgary); Jamie Lagenbrunner, F (UFA); Wade Redden, D (Boston); Matt D'Agostini, F (New Jersey); Scott Nichol, F (UFA)
Available Cap Space: $1.124 million
What to Expect: The St. Louis Blues have a rare problem that you don’t see
with too many teams around the league: they have too much talent. Now this
statement does come with an asterisk because, while they do boast strong
players up and down the lineup, they lack a truly top-level offencive talent.
Their top scorer of this past season, winger Chris Stewart, was locked in a
10-way tie for 18th in the league for goals scored (18), and in a
six-way tie for 43rd in points (36).
To further explore this point, St. Louis finished last
season 17th in the league in goals for per game with 2.58. To offset their
middle-of-the-pack scoring prowess, they tied for 7th in goals against per game
with 2.38, tied with Los Angeles.
This performance came after major setbacks by the 2012 William
Jennings Trophy-winning duo in goal, Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliot. Halak
incurred several injuries over the course of the shortened season, and coupling
that with Elliot's concurrent regression, rookie Jake Allen positioned himself
to take hold of a permanent backup spot by succeeding in his small number of
starts. Both Halak and Elliot will reach unrestricted free agency after this
season and with St. Louis approaching the cap ceiling, the organization will have a
decision to make regarding which netminder will take the number one spot.
To bolster the highly competent situation in net, the Blues sport
one of the strongest two-day defence cores in the league. They picked up Jay
Bouwmeester prior to the trade deadline from Calgary who immediately jumped
into top-line duty. He as well as Jordan Leopold complimented puck-movers Kevin
Shattenkirk and the recently signed Alex Pietrangelo. Pietrangelo was a
restricted free agent after the completion of his entry level contract this offseason and was
a training camp holdout after negotiations stalled but the two sides finally
agreed on a deal to keep the elite blue-liner on the team for the next seven
seasons.
The thing about St. Louis’ talent is that it is all still
developing with a good handful in or entering the prime years of their careers.
Forwards Stewart, T.J. Oshie, Vladimir Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, and
newly-acquired, ex-Oiler Magnus Paajarvi are all 26 years old or younger.
21-year-old sophomore Vladimir Tarasenko will also have a chance to prove he
can provide more stable production than he did during his rookie campaign.
Tarasenko stormed into the league full-force, accumulating 5 goals and 10
points in his inaugural 8 games, but cooled off significantly, tacking on 9
more points in the 30 games following. Place these forwards alongside Shattenkirk and Pietrangelo,
24 and 23 respectively, and the Blues start looking greater than the sum of
their parts.
General Manager Doug Armstrong deserves a lot of credit for
how he is managing his team. The main pieces on defence are locked in for at
least the next four seasons with only the need for depth players to be spoken for. The
goaltender situation will be settled after a full season this year and
regardless of who takes the number one spot, Allen will have a full season on a
dirt cheap one-way contract to prove his worth as a full-fledged backup. When
it comes to the forward group, they have three pending RFAs and five pending
UFAs but also around $22.5 million in cap space entering next season. They have
guys that warrant extensions and a couple with something to prove but also have
a knack at finding bargain forwards at top-six as well as depth roles.
The Blues finished last season with 10 players accumulating
at least .50 points per game in at least 10 games wearing a Blues sweater.
Compare that to Stanley Cup Finalists Chicago and Boston who each had seven
apiece with the same criteria. The Blues are built for balance and while they
have yet to take the next step in the playoffs, they have proven how difficult
they are to matchup against in the regular season.
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