2-4-T's Preseason Prognosis: Atlantic Division Part 2

In anticipation of the coming season, the staff at Two Minutes for Typing will be breaking out our scalpels, slicing the divisions in half, and dissecting each team to see what will be making them tick this year. Of course some appear to be more ready for the rigors of a full 82-game compliment than others. With that in mind, we will be looking through the microscope at who will perish on the operating table, who has a fighting chance under the knife, and who will be sewn, stitched, and sipping ginger ale come playoff time. I present to you 2-4-T's Preseason Prognosis.

The Miss:

Tampa Bay Lightning

Last Season's Result: 14th in the East

Additions: Valtteri Filppula, F (Detroit); Ben Bishop, G (Ottawa); Jonathan Drouin, F (Drafted 3rd Overall)

Subtractions: Vincent Lecavalier, F (Philadelphia, Buyout); Benoit Pouliot, F (N. Y. Rangers); Marc Andre Bergeron, D (Carolina); Adam Hall, D (Philadelphia); Cory Conacher, F (Ottawa); Mathieu Garon, G (UFA)

Available Cap Space: $2.609 million

What To Expect: This past year has been strange for many teams in the NHL. It started last offseason with Columbus honouring Rick Nash's trade request and the UFA frenzy which forever linked Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. This past season saw some similar moves involving franchise players as Jarome Iginlia, Brendan Morrow, and Jason Pomminville all were shipped from the teams they captained into opposite conferences. Tampa Bay is no different as ex-captain Vincent Lecavalier was bought out at the start of July by the team that drafted him first overall in 1998.

The buyout was understandable, as Lecavalier was signed through the 2019-20 season on a back-diving contract characteristic of the previous CBA. The contract would have been subject to the cap recapture penalty under the new CBA in the event he would have retired before the end of the term. While this makes sense as far as the organization is concerned, it leaves the product on the ice with more questions than answers for the coming year.

In the two seasons since their ECF Game 7 defeat at the hands of the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins, the Lightning have finished 10th and 14th in the East, respectively. While they haven't had difficulty scoring goals, with a weapon named Steven Stamkos in the arsenal, Tampa has had significant trouble keeping pucks out of their own net. In 2011-12 and 2012-13, they have finished 9th and 5th in goals for, respectively, while ranking 27th and 17th in goal differential.

In 2011-12, their two goaltenders with the largest workloads had save percentages of .901 (Mathieu Garon, 44 starts) and .886 (Dwayne Roloson, 31 starts). The following year wasn't much better with the new pair earning .902 (Anders Lindback, 21 starts) and .897 (Garon, 16 starts). The Lightning acquired career backup Ben Bishop from Ottawa for rookie Cory Conacher and a fourth round pick in the hopes that he and Lindback could pressure each other for stronger performances and square off for the starting position. While it is yet to be seen if this tandem can effectively backstop the team, it is certain that the Lightning are searching for a more sound defensive system and goaltending that can prop up their strong scoring punch.

To replace Lecavalier and Conacher up front, Tampa Bay will be placing the burden on the shoulders of 29-year-old Valtteri Filppula and 18-year-old Jonathan Drouin. Filppula's time on-ice tends to hover around 18 minutes so he should be a suitable replacement for Lecavalier in that regard. However his production leaves something to be desired as he has broken the 20-goal threshold only once in his career. Drouin is fresh off the NHL Entry Draft as well as a 41-goal, 64-assist season with the Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL. Making the jump from juniors to the NHL is always risky as a means for developing talent so Tampa will have to decide in his first 9 games whether the big league is the proper fit for Drouin's growth or if he is better suited with more time on his junior team.

The Lightning have a solid enough squad to not necessitate a full rebuild but I would highly consider them a team in transition. By joining the old Northeast division, which had sent at least 3 teams yearly to the postseason, plus Detroit, their path to a Stanley Cup bid becomes all the more challenging. I would give Tampa Bay some time to acclimate to the terrain in the new alignment as well as the altered travel before I would place them as strong contenders again.

The Hopefuls:

Ottawa Senators

Last Season's Result: 7th in the East, Lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins during the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 5 games

Additions: Bobby Ryan, F (Anaheim); Clarke MacArthur, F (Toronto); Joe Corvo, D (Carolina); Cory Conacher, F (Tampa Bay)

Subtractions: Daniel Alfredsson, F (Detroit); Sergei Gonchar, D (Dallas); Ben Bishop, G (Tampa Bay); Jakob Silfverberg, F (Anaheim); Guillaume Latendresse, F (UFA); Kaspars Daugavins, F (Boston); Mike Lundin, D (UFA); Andre Benoit, D (Colorado); Peter Regin, F (N. Y. Islanders)

Available Cap Space: $11.314 million

What To Expect: The Ottawa Senators had quite the season to be proud of in 2012-13. With injuries to Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson, Milan Michalek, Craig Anderson, and Guillaume Latendresse all in a month from the start of the season  it seemed that their hopes for success were all but dashed. However, the Sens showed the strength of their farm system by posting impressive showings from rookies Mika Zibanejad, Jakob Silfverberg, Patrick Wiercoch, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau. With backup goaltenders Ben Bishop and Robin Lehner combining for a 13-8-4 record behind starter Anderson's 12-9-2, Ottawa willed themselves into a 7th seed playoff spot.

The Senators wouldn't last long in the playoffs, however. After upsetting the Montreal Canadiens in five games, they would get out to a 3-1 deficit against the Pittsburgh Penguins before the wheels would really come off. Daniel Alfredsson, captain at the time whose 17-season career had all been with the Senators, told reporters that they would "probably not" come back and win three games in a row. Call it surrender or call it honesty but the writing appeared to be on the wall. Ottawa would be eliminated in Game 5 and Daniel Alfredsson would hit the open market and sign for a high price with incoming division rival Detroit.

Despite this blow to the fans, the Ottawa Senators are still a team piecing together a competitive roster. Head Coach Paul MacLean was extended for three years, gaining a vote of confidence in his systems after winning the Jack Adams Award. Once the free agent flood gates opened, Ottawa traded Silfverberg, a prospect, and a pick to Anaheim for Bobby Ryan, who, despite his skill, has had trade rumours looming about him for around two years. The club also added depth at forward with Clarke MacArthur and at defense with Joe Corvo. 

Ottawa proved that it could execute an effective rebuild on the fly after their poor 2010-11 season. The cause for concern for the team is if they can repeat or even improve upon their success from this year. Despite his time missed due to injury, Craig Anderson was still in the conversation for the Vezina Trophy up until the end of the season. While his .941 SV% and 1.69 GAA lead the league, his career numbers tell a different story. We will see if a full season of work will cause a regression to the mean or if he has arrived as an elite net-minder.

With the departures of Alfredsson as well as defenseman Sergei Gonchar, the Sens now have only five players at 30 years of age or above. By the same token, they have about the same number of players on the roster at 23 years old or younger who are about to enter their first full season of NHL action. While the dense schedule of the lockout shortened season worked to their favour, it should be interesting to see how these players adjust. Competition for roster spots should be fairly aggressive among sophomores knowing that many of the off-season acquisitions are poised to take over the recently vacated full-time positions. We will see who is hungry and who hits the dreaded sophomore slump.

Montreal Canadiens

Last Season's Result: 2nd in the East, Lost to the Ottawa Senators during the Eastern Conference Quarter Finals in 5 games

Additions: Danny Briere, F (Philadelphia); George Parros, F (Florida)

Subtractions: Tomas Kaberle, D (UFA, Buyout); Michael Ryder, F (New Jersey); Colby Armstrong, F (UFA); Yannick Weber, D (Vancouver); Erik Cole, F (Dallas); Jeff Halpern, F (UFA)

Available Cap Space: $3.387 million

What To Expect: Montreal sure does like them small. Looking at the average weight and height of the 2012-13 opening day rosters, the Habs ranked 28th and 30th, respectively, out of the 30 teams in the NHL. It doesn’t seem like an effective formula to build the majority of an NHL team off of but for some reason it seemed to work for them this past season.

Despite their size and tough competition, I tend to characterize Montreal as a team that won’t allow themselves to be counted out or pushed around. They have not disappointed this generalization much in recent memory either. In 2009-10, the Canadiens, as an 8th seed in the playoffs, rode the strong coattails of then goaltender Jaroslav Halak past the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins before being ousted by the eventual Stanley Cup Runner-up Philadelphia Flyers in the Eastern Conference Finals. In 2010-11, the Habs-Bruins rivalry flared, with a game-long battle resulting in a combined 192 penalty minutes on February 9th, 2011. One month later, Zdeno Chara ignited the ire of the Bleu, Blanc, et Rouge faithful by running Max Pacioretty face-first into a stanchion next to the benches.

While Montreal would suffer a hiccup in 2011-12, finishing at 15th place in the East with 78 points, the team committed to punctuating their talented, young roster with some added toughness. In the offseason they would go on to sign forwards Brandon Prust, Colby Armstrong, and defenseman Francis Boullion. While not one of the three boasts over 200 pounds in weight they, along with Calder finalist Brendan Gallagher, helped return the Habs to their slippery, pesky style of play and the top of the Northeast division.

While the Canadiens did in fact finish the 2012-13 season as the 2nd seed in the East, the road was not as cut and dry as it may sound. Most of the season was spent within arm’s reach of Boston, Toronto, and Ottawa for the top spot in the division. Even in the final weeks, the Habs and Bruins flipped back and forth between 2nd and 4th so often that it made one wonder if either team actually wanted the standings position or if even Toronto could surprisingly leap-frog over the two.

This would be where the concern for the 2013-14 Canadiens would lie. Their disposition appeared to border on the lackadaisical and they failed to capitalize on important opportunities. This carried over to the playoffs, as they were easily handled in five games by division rival Ottawa. Maybe it was fatigue or maybe some unseen problems in the locker room but the team was thrown off their game and goaltender Carey Price was thrown off his form, best evidenced by decisions of 6-1 against in both Game 3 and the eliminating Game 5.

While Montreal is looking to repeat another strong season with last year’s roster mostly intact, the question for them will be how to manage salary for the following year. They currently have a full 23-man roster signed with almost $3.5 million under the cap to work with. However, that number drops to 14 players with six UFAs, including captain Brian Gionta, and three RFAs, with most notably P.K. Subban in that mix. Subban held out for six games at the beginning of the past season before resigning to a two year “show me” contract which saw him accrue a Norris Trophy along with 38 points, good for second on the team. With affordably only two contracts currently at annual cap hits above $5 million, several upcoming free agents will be due for raises and the organization will have to make some important decisions, including what to do with five out of eight defensemen coming off the books.

The Lock:

Detroit Red Wings

Last Season's Result: 7th in the West, Lost in the Western Conference Semifinals to the Chicago Blackhawks in 7 games

Additions: Daniel Alfredsson, F (Ottawa); Stephen Weiss, F (Florida)

Subtractions: Valtteri Filppula, F (Tampa Bay); Danny Cleary, F (UFA); Ian White, D (UFA); Carlo Colaiacavo, D (UFA, Buyout); Damien Brunner, F (UFA)

Available Cap Space: $312,121

What To Expect: 14 Division Championships. 6 President's Trophies. 6 Stanley Cup Final appearances. 4 Stanley Cup Rings. 9 expansion teams. 5 relocated teams. 4 divisional realignments. 3 lockouts. 1 player strike. 22 consecutive seasons. Ladies and Gentlemen, this would be what the Detroit Red Wings have seen since the last time they missed the playoffs.

Fast forward to the start of the 2012-13 season, when Detroit's position in the West was full of uncertainty. Swedes Nicklas Lindstrom and Tomas Holmstrom simultaneously retired while defenseman Brad Stuart's rights were traded to the San Jose Sharks. While all three had seen their productions decline, replacing that amount of veteran experience could often prove to be a tough task for any roster. Facing a well-balanced Chicago squad, a Nashville team showing promise, a St. Louis lineup on the rise, and a sleeper in Columbus, Detroit's aging core was not exactly a popular favourite to come out on top in the Central division.

While old reliables Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, and Niklas Kronwall carried the lion's share of the load in this past season, Detroit showed the serviceability in the younger players on their roster. Rookies Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Brendan Smith, Brian Lashoff, and first-year/non-rookie (due to age) Damien Brunner all played for a large portion of the season and gained valuable, yet somewhat sheltered, NHL experience.

It appears this season that the Red Wings will again defer to age before beauty as they signed free agents Daniel Alfredsson, 40, and Stephen Weiss, 30, at a $10.4 million cap hit between the two. As reported yesterday in the Detroit Free Press, the club has expressed its wishes to resign UFA Danny Cleary as well as RFA Nyquist but will be unable to do so unless they ship somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 million (my personal estimation) in salary elsewhere. While the D-group remains fairly young, the average age of the forwards is a hair over 30 years old with or without these two free agents back in the lineup.

While some of these moves may leave you scratching your head as far as the future of the Red Wings goes, it is hard to argue that General Manager Ken Holland doesn't have a plan in place. After holding the position since 1998, his track record proves that he has the presence of mind to build a team to succeed in the present while not giving up anything vital to keep them competitive. The AHL affiliate Grand Rapids Griffins helped make the case for the latter statement by winning the Calder Cup this season. While the farm team hasn't historically paralleled the success of the parent club, their developing prospects should be making some significant strides into the NHL in the coming years.

Assuming the Detroit Red Wings will make the playoffs is almost akin to putting money down that the Earth revolves around the Sun: it's a no-brainer at this point in time. They have a firm and respected coach, highly talented and revered veterans, and skilled youth that work hard to earn every shift they get. They retain their homegrown talent, rarely have to overpay for desired free-agents, and, as evidenced by Alfredsson this season and Mike Modano in 2010-11, are an attractive destination for high-profile players with enough gas in the tank to shoot for a Cup before retirement. It won't be until the Earth stops circling the Sun that we start asking questions.

Also Read:

Atlantic Division Part 1