In anticipation of the coming season, the staff at Two
Minutes for Typing will be breaking out our scalpels, slicing the divisions in
half, and dissecting each team to see what will be making them tick this year.
Of course some appear to be more ready for the rigors of a full 82-game
compliment than others. With that in mind, we will be looking through the
microscope at who will perish on the operating table, who has a fighting chance
under the knife, and who will be sewn, stitched, and sipping ginger ale come
playoff time. I present to you 2-4-T's Preseason Prognosis.
The Miss:
Phoenix Coyotes
Last Season's Result: 10th in the West
Additions: Mike Ribeiro, F (Washington); Brandon Yip, F (Nashville); Thomas Greiss, G (San Jose)
Subtractions: Boyd Gordon, F (Edmonton); Raffi Torres, F (San Jose); Jason Labarbera, G (Edmonton); Matthew Lombardi, F (Anaheim); Steve Sullivan, F (New Jersey); Chad Johnson, G (Boston)
Available Cap Space: $6.123 million
With ownership settled for the time being, eyes will
turn to the product on the ice. The system in place under head coach Dave
Tippet characteristically favours defense but the team suffered a setback this
past season with a finish outside the playoff race. The
main benefactors of this style of play tend to be the goaltenders, as Ilya
Bryzgalov could tell you. Just as his predecessor did before him with a different club,
Mike Smith accumulated career highs in SV% (.930) and GAA (2.21) in 2011-12 on
the path to earning a 38-18-10 record as well as a contract extension set to
kick in this year with a $5.67 million cap hit. In the shortened season,
however, he dropped back to just average as with the rest of the team.
The main thing with the Coyotes is that, aside from
their success in 2011-12, they are perennially just average. They have managed
to stay competitive but lack the offensive firepower to really push them into
legitimate contention. Their top point producer this past year was defenseman
Keith Yandle with 10 goals and 20 assists. Right wing Radim Vrbata would have
been on pace for 40 points had he stayed healthy but was limited to 34 games. Phoenix
acquired 33-year-old centre Mike Ribeiro in the offseason who is still capable
of close to a point per game, but it is
still uncertain whether he can maintain that pace without the flashy talent
that flanked him in Washington.
The Coyotes are still two players short of a full
roster but they also have not resigned RFA Mikkel Boedker. At 23 years old,
Boedker is starting to come into his own, earning the status of 4th highest
scorer on the team this season with 26 points while eclipsing his 24 points
from the year before. Signing him should be a no brainer, especially with the
space under the cap they have available and his contract should come in at a
fairly affordable price even with him looking for his third contract.
The defense is rounded out with eight players
currently signed. The biggest bright spot on that list would be 22-year-old
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, whose 6-year, $33 million contract extension kicks in
this year. OEL is already a strong presence on the blue line who finished 7th
in Norris Trophy voting, one space back of Duncan Keith and one ahead of Shea
Weber, and is starting to be mentioned in the same breath as fellow Swede Erik
Karlsson and this year's Norris winner P.K. Subban. Regardless of how the
Coyotes fare this season, Ekman-Larsson is poised to continue increasing his
report among the elite defenseman in the league.
The NHL has shown time and time again that defensive
systems do not always equal success. While the 2011-12 edition of the L.A. Kings
pulled a Stanley Cup out of the hat of defensive prowess, they also had the
elite scoring touch to tip the scales in their favour. As far as the Coyotes
are concerned, they have a balanced squad up and down their ranks to be sure
but they don't have the individual talent in either their skaters or
goaltending to single-handedly win games when the chips are down and the team
effort falters. While the new ownership group is excited and confident, they
are still fielding a team that the NHL built. It will take some time before
they make their mark on the roster and show the city of Glendale as well as the
league that they are wholly committed to winning.
The Hopefuls:
Vancouver Canucks
Last Season's Result: 3rd in the West, Lost to the San Jose Sharks during the Western Conference Quarter Finals in 4 games
Additions: Yannick Weber, D (Montreal); Brad Richardson, F (Los Angeles)
Subtractions: Cory Schneider, G (New Jersey); Derek Roy, F (St. Louis); Keith Ballard, D (Minnesota, Buyout); Mason Raymond, F (UFA); Maxim Lapierre, F (St. Louis); Manny Malhotra, F (UFA); Andrew Alberts, D (UFA); Cam Barker, D (UFA)
Available Cap Space: $4.347 million
What To Expect: The Vancouver Canucks are in that elite group, along
with San Jose and Washington, of yearly also-rans. Since the 2008-09 season,
these three teams have made every postseason, collected 12 division
championships, and each have a President’s Trophy under their belts. However,
they only have a total of 3 trips to the Conference Finals (San Jose and
Vancouver played each other in 2010-11) and 1 Stanley Cup Final appearance.
Suffice it to say there is not a Cup to show for their troubles. Good but not
good enough I guess you could say.
It wouldn’t be a discussion about the Canucks if we
didn’t take a moment to talk about a proverbial “window” and its eventual
closing. Much of that is predicated upon the effectiveness of Sedins Henrik and
Daniel who boast a freakishly uncanny awareness of each other on the ice. For
years the pair has cast a long shadow over the rest of the team as far as
offensive production goes but with each at age 32, the shadow has greatly
diminished. Since 2009-10, Henrik has reached point totals of 112, 94, 81, and
45 (roughly on pace for 77 in 82 games). Daniel has seen a similar decline with
85 (63 games played), 104, 67 (72 games played), and 40 (roughly on pace for 69
in 81 games). Either the rest of the league has been catching on to their slick
ways or we are front and center to watch two players with 18 years of
experience on the same line fade from greatness.
As the Swedish twins go, so goes the team. With
Minnesota squeaking into the final slot for the playoffs, this was the first
year to feature a non-Canuck Northwest Division team since 2009-10 when
Colorado made a brief postseason appearance. The margin hasn’t been slim
either, at least until this year when Vancouver and Minnesota both amassed 26
wins yet Vancouver grabbed four more “loser points” from overtime/shootout
losses. This is indeed an interesting time for the Canucks now that they will
be catching sun in California and Arizona on a more frequent basis.
The Canucks
did not do much this offseason to bolster the roster but they did wave goodbye
to coach of seven years Alain Vigneault and replaced him with similarly let-go
John Tortorella from the New York Rangers. While the departure of AV was not
exactly a surprise after being on the wrong side of a first-round sweep, the
acquisition of Tortorella definitely raised a couple eyebrows. John Tortorella
is stylistically a departure from AV’s tendency towards open offense as more of
a grinding, defense-first, notorious shot-blocking approach.
On a related note, Vancouver traded highly-touted
backup goaltender Cory Schneider to New Jersey at the Entry Draft for the 9th overall pick. After the drama the Canucks have seen in the crease for around
two years it turns out that Roberto Luongo and his contract are here to stay. Maybe Bobby Lu is ready to be back as the go-to guy in net or maybe he is still mentally not there after being forsaken by the organization and the fans. With the expectation that he reports come training camp we shall see if the shifted focus Tortorella offers will help prop up the
already top-tier net-minder. New backup Eddie Lack may also benefit from the
new system as he has not yet seen a second of NHL ice time.
With 20 players currently on the roster and a few
million to work with under the cap, the Canucks still have some work to do to
fill out some positions. Notable UFAs include capable winger Mason Raymond and
centreman Manny Malhotra, who suffered a debilitating eye injury in 2011. Also
RFA defenseman Chris Tanev is miles away from a contract and is fielding offers
from the KHL and the Swiss elite league while discussions with the Canucks
stand still. One option they face is to bring some AHL players on two-way
contracts into the fold for relief and look into mid-season trades and signings
once they have had time to see where they are at. It could be too soon to tell but
the Canucks seem to be revealing their level of uncertainty towards the future
of the club.
San Jose Sharks
Last Season's Result: 6th in the West, Lost to the Los Angeles Kings during the Western Conference Semifinals in 7 games
Additions: Raffi Torres, F (Phoenix); Tyler Kennedy, F (Pittsburgh); Scott Hannan, D (Nashville)
Subtractions: Douglas Murray, D (Pittsburgh); Ryane Clowe, F (N.Y. Rangers); Michal Handzus, F (Chicago); Scott Gomez, F (Florida); Thomas Greiss, G (Phoenix); T.J. Galiardi, F (Calgary)
Available Cap Space: $406,667 over cap limit
What To Expect: The San
Jose Sharks deserve credit for currently riding a 128-game sellout streak in a
non-traditional hockey market. The sellout streak stands in support of the
adage that a winning team draws fans despite the location and the Sharks
haven’t missed the playoffs since 2003. All of this success has come from the
top players performing well and the supporting players pulling their weight and picking up the slack for the stars when needed.
When it’s
all boiled down, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Dan Boyle are now 34, 33,
and 37, respectively, but also all come off the books after the 2013-14
season. With an aging core, GM Doug Wilson needs to be looking to inject
new blood in order to continue on his quest for a Stanley Cup. Wilson did
invest in the future by signing forwards Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture through
2018-19 as well as two-way defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic through 2017-18.
However, outside of those three extensions, Wilson is looking in all the wrong
places for talent to flesh out his roster.
Wilson
has said very publicly that his number one goal is to win a Cup. This seems to
be a plan that only exists one year at a time. Wilson is willing to trade up
and coming players and draft picks in order to secure players that know what it
takes to win a Stanley Cup. However, the players that know what it takes to play at that level are usually past their prime. With this look at veteran players,
the Sharks have seen few of their draft picks see time in an NHL sweater. The
most recent players that have broken the barrier are Jason Demers and Tommy
Wingels, both of whom were drafted in 2008. Beyond that, the only recent Sharks
draftee to be holding an NHL job is 2010 pick Charlie Coyle, who hasn't seen action
until this past season in Minnesota.
Aside
from a handful of extensions, the biggest move the Sharks made in the offseason
is allow backup goaltender Thomas Greiss to walk as an UFA. Next in line Alex
Stalock has been in the Sharks system since 2009 waiting patiently for his
chance at the big club. With the passing of the torch that is
imminent in the Shark’s future, this is the perfect time to give Stalock some
NHL experience.
In the
past few years there would have been no doubt that the Sharks are a lock for
the playoffs. However, with the core players only getting older, the realignment making
the Pacific Division increasingly difficult, and very little young talent, the
Sharks are a maybe for 2013-14 and very well could be practicing their golf
games earlier than they'd like. Its possible that if the Sharks are not in a
good spot come time for the Olympic break, there could be a fire sale in order
to save themselves a lot of contract mess in the long run. And with Doug
Wilson's apparent fear of long-term contracts, if might be a while before the
Sharks are competitive after this year if he doesn't manage things well.
The Lock:
Los Angeles Kings
Last Season's Result: 5th in the West, Lost to the Chicago Blackhawks during the Western Conference Finals in 5 games
Additions: Robyn Regehr, D (Buffalo); Ben Scrivens, G (Toronto); Daniel Carcillo, F (Chicago); Jeff Schultz, D (Washington)
Subtractions: Jonathan Bernier, G (Toronto); Dustin Penner, F (Anaheim); Rob Scuderi, D (Pittsburgh); Simon Gagne, F (Philadelphia); Brad Richardson, F (Vancouver)
Available Cap Space: $86,894 above cap limit
What To Expect: It's hard to argue that the Los Angeles Kings aren't the team to beat in the Pacific Division this year. After a long string of
middling to unspectacular seasons since The Great One wore the sweater, the
Kings shocked everyone across the hockey world by riding a nearly undefeated postseason record and winning their first franchise Stanley Cup in 2012. Lead
by franchise forwards Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown, Flyers castoffs Mike
Richards and Jeff Carter, young two-way defenseman Drew Doughty, and arguably
the top U.S.-born net-minder Jonathan Quick, the Kings are absolutely a force
to be reckoned with for years to come.
The interesting thing with Los Angeles these past
two seasons is that their regular season performances haven't been much to
write home about. In 2012, they battled San Jose in the final game of the
season to decide who would face 1st place Vancouver and who would contest
against 2nd place St. Louis in the first round of the playoffs. This season saw
a similar situation, though the final game helped them solidify their 5th place
position in the standings in order to matchup against St. Louis in the first
round. While they weren't as unstoppable this time around, they still made a
second straight visit to the Western Conference Finals while maintaining low
goal totals in front of their shutdown defense and goaltending.
While the Kings haven't had to do much to change
their roster up since they won the Cup, they will have to make some decisions
starting this year for their future. As of now they are around $80,000 above
the cap with one roster spot to relinquish in order to be compliant for the start
of the season. Dustin Penner, Rob Scuderi, and Brad Richardson all hit UFA
status this offseason though they all serve more as role players than roster
spots to build the team around. Backup goaltender Jonathan Bernier was traded
to Toronto which was seen as an inevitability with the ten-year contract due to
Jonathan Quick kicking in this year, giving Bernier a
legitimate chance to play for a starting gig.
The Kings proved that they had enough young talent
making waves in the lineup to let these players walk. Defenseman Slava Voynov
broke out as an offensive force playing alongside shutdown man Scuderi. Jake
Muzzin also finally capitalized on the opportunity to prove his worth, earning
him some top four consideration along the blue line. The acquisitions of Robyn
Regehr at the trade deadline as well as Jeff Schultz in the offseason might
push one or both down the depth chart, keeping in mind that the Kings currently
have contracts signed for nine defensemen, but each received significant looks
in their first full seasons on the squad.
Their group of forwards also received a boost from
within. Kyle Clifford was extended for a pair of years on what I would assume
would be a "show me" transition contract. While he isn't a natural
point scorer, he has gotten some looks with the top two lines and drew some
success in that capacity. Clifford does add a good chunk of penalty minutes
each season so we could see him bloom as either an effective power forward or
just a lesser, expendable version of Dustin Brown, who is signed for the next 8
years and does sport the letter "C" on the front of his jersey. Tyler
Toffoli also got a handful of games to show his stuff this season, playing 10
out of the 48-game grind and 12 in the playoff run. While he is entering the
second year of his ELC and the Kings are stocked with forwards, Toffoli is
certain to get some playing time the moment a scratch appears on the roster.
As stated, the Kings have some pocket change to
relinquish before they are able to submit a cap-compliant opening day roster.
But one thing to consider is that as it stands now, next offseason will see
them have nine spots to fill will a hair under $10 million dollars to do that
with. Six of their biggest key pieces are signed for at least the next six
years so their core players are taken care of for the most part. Fan favourite
Anze Kopitar is set to become a UFA after the 2015-16 season and he will
certainly not make less than his $6.8 million yearly average. Dean Lombardi
should start making decisions now about how to manage his team because, while
he isn't in trouble in the near future, he will need to keep financials in mind
going forward to keep the team among the league's elite.
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