In anticipation of the coming season, the staff at Two
Minutes for Typing will be breaking out our scalpels, slicing the divisions in
half, and dissecting each team to see what will be making them tick this year.
Of course some appear to be more ready for the rigors of a full 82-game
compliment than others. With that in mind, we will be looking through the
microscope at who will perish on the operating table, who has a fighting chance
under the knife, and who will be sewn, stitched, and sipping ginger ale come
playoff time. I present to you 2-4-T's Preseason Prognosis.
The Miss:
Minnesota Wild
Last Season's Result: 8th in the West, Lost to the Chicago Blackhawks during the Western Conference Quarterfinals in 5 games
Additions: Jason Pomminville, F (Buffalo); Nino Niederreiter, F (N.Y. Islanders); Keith Ballard, D (Vancouver); Matt Cooke, F (Pittsburgh); Brett Clark, D (Florida)
Subtractions: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, F (N.Y. Islanders); Matthew Hackett, G (Buffalo); Matt Cullen, F (Nashville); Justin Falk, D (N.Y. Rangers); Tom Gilbert, D (Buyout, UFA)
Available Cap Space: $2.784 million
What to Expect: Despite the shopping spree from GM Check Fletcher, the Wild just couldn’t seem to put a competitive team on the ice. While they did fare better than teams that didn’t make the post-season, I’m sure fans were expecting a lot more out of some of the last long term deals under the previous CBA. Both Zach Parise and Ryan Suter were huge hits in St. Paul, making instant marks on the team's score sheet, but the 13-year-long deals could prove to be difficult in later years.
With plenty of young players in the mix, training camp will really put players through turmoil in an attempt to round out the top 6 forwards. Players from the 2010 draft class will be looking to make a real splash on the NHL roster. One of the biggest competitions seen in training camp lies between Mikael Granlund and Charlie Coyle. Granlund has yet to impress the fans in Minnesota despite all the hype that surrounded the name last season while Coyle is a former Boston University star. Both players are looking to fill the vacant number 2 center spot now that Matt Cullen has made his way to the Music City.
Another pick from the 2010 draft, Nino Neiderreiter, could be looking to make some waves this season. The winger came to Minnesota from the Islanders in exchange for Cal Clutterbuck. Neiderreiter had a strong performance last season in the AHL and will be looking to stick it out for a full season with the big club. Neiderreiter, nonetheless, could be a great depth player used to round out the Wild roster.
One big question mark for Minnesota, like plenty of other teams around the league, lies in net. In the playoff opener last year, Backstrom suffered an injury during the pregame warm-up. This injury, a sports hernia, required surgery in the offseason. Backstrom should be looking for Josh Harding to step up and alleviate some of the weight from his shoulders. However, Harding, the 29-year-old net minder, suffers from Multiple Sclerosis and this could have an impact on the number of games he is able to play. Behind the two of these men on the depth chart is Darcy Kuemper. Kuemper, a 23-year-old from Saskatoon, has only seen action in 2 NHL games but should be in position to get a better taste on NHL-caliber play.
With the addition of Keith Ballard to the blue line, the defense for the Wild looks strong. Jonas Brodin will likely reprise the top spot alongside Suter as the two are an extremely responsible pair that gets right to the point of shut-down defense and clearing pucks. This D-pairing is a main reason that Minnesotans can be excited about their team moving into the regular season.
There are a lot of things that could push the Wild past good enough, perhaps even beyond good, and really make them a contender for a playoff spot again in 2014. If Backstom and Harding can stay healthy, if the young guns can put up numbers to support the big money forwards, and hell, maybe even Dany Heatley will make a substantial impact. But don’t hold your breathe on that.
The Central Division, filled with Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville, Winnipeg, Dallas, and Colorado is not at the elite level of the Pacific or Metropolitan Divisions, but even with that, there are too many things that need to fall into place at the right time in order for Minnesota to see a playoff berth come mid-April.
The Hopeful:
Dallas Stars
Last Season's Result: 11th in the West
Additions: Tyler Seguin, F (Boston); Sergei Gonchar, D (Ottawa); Shawn Horcoff, F (Edmonton); Rich Peverley, F (Boston); Dan Ellis, G (Carolina); Valeri Nichuskin, F (Entry Draft)
Subtractions: Brendan Morrow, F (Pittsburgh); Loui Eriksson, F (Boston); Richard Bachman, G (Edmonton); Jaromir Jagr, F (Boston); Derek Roy, F (Vancouver); Philip Larsen, D (Edmonton); Eric Nystrom, F (Nashville); Reilly Smith, F (Boston)
Available Cap Space: $2.541 million
What to Expect: The Dallas Stars were once a force in the Western Conference
but for the past five seasons, they struggled to remain even at the lower end
of the playoff bubble. With the always dominant Sharks, the up-and-down Ducks,
and the Kings and Coyotes on their own unique upward trends, the Stars
gradually were buried in the already strong Pacific Division. The shift to the
new Central provides challenges of its own but Dallas could potentially be a
bonafide sleeper coming into this year.
To start, the Stars have an elite netminder in Kari Lehtonen. While Dallas has been underwhelming over the past several years, the Finn has been at his best as the unquestioned starter. Since 2010-11, he has posted save percentages of .914, .922, and .916. Despite the Stars finishing 11th in the West and 21th in the league last year, Lehtonen ranked 19th in the SV% category and, while 15th in games started, had a better SV% than 8 goaltenders with more starts. Lehtonen has earned the trust of the organisation, it is just a matter of building the proper cast of characters in front of him.
On offense, Dallas will be faced with piecing together its best lines with a fairly new roster in top positions. The organisation dealt captain Brendan Morrow at the trade deadline and shipped out Loui Eriksson in a blockbuster, seven-player deal after this year’s entry draft. Coming back to the Lone Star State was prodigal star Tyler Seguin and capable depth-player Rich Peverley. Joining this new group is Shawn Horcoff from Edmonton who has seen his production drop off since his 73-point 2005-06 season and has had trouble justifying the $5.5 million cap hit he has been receiving since 2009-10. Fresh starts could absolutely benefit this collection of players.
On top of the new additions, Dallas has four forwards on the current roster still locked in to their entry-level deals. Antoine Roussel and Alex Chiasson both saw their first bout of NHL action in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 year while Cody Eakin made a significant improvement in 48 games for the Stars after his rookie debut the year prior in Washington. Roussel had a limited impact for the team but scored at a point per game pace during an eight game stretch in the middle of the year. Chiasson didn’t make an appearance on the squad until April but during his seven-game stretch he netted six goals and tacked on an assist.
Projected to join the collection of youngsters is 2013 10th-overall pick Valeri Nichuskin. The 18-year-old Russian has rocketed up the ranks in his home country, going from the MHL (juniors) to the VHL (minor pro) to the KHL all within the 2012-13 season and is highly touted as one of the few draft picks from this year expected to stay with his major club after the nine-game tryout period. In his preseason debut against St. Louis this past Sunday, Nichuskin came out of the gate by potting two goals so expectations are high for the prospect.
The Dallas defense core has been suspect which is as much to blame for their 20th-ranked 5-on-5 team goals-against this past year with 92. I've used Corsi to judge performance of denfencemen in the past but let's bring up another advanced statistic: Fenwick. Fenwick is as much a possession stat as Corsi in that it accounts for shots directed at the net but Fenwick does not factor in blocked shots, which is often an intentional action and can be argued as a skill. Among the eight defensemen that dressed this past year for Dallas, only one had a Fenwick-For percentage above 50% in 5-on-5 situations.
Part of the problem here is that Dallas doesn't have much in the defencive cupboard to drive possession in the opposite direction. Alex Goligoski was the highest scoring defenceman on the team with 27 points which was good for a six-way tie for 12th in the league. The next most effective defencemen had 13 points apiece and were two of the nine players tied for 69th. To provide a boost the Stars brought in 39-year-old Sergei Gonchar, who has only been under .50 points-per-game three times in his 18-season career, as well as to provide guidance to the younger group in the lineup. While this move should make an impact for the two years he signed on for, will this single addition be enough to propel the team's blue line forward?
The Dallas Stars are absolutely retooling things and while
they haven't dressed for a regular season game since Jim Nill was hired as
General Manager, they seem to be taking a step in the right direction. While
they aren't exactly anyone's pick to come out on top of the league this year,
the Dallas Stars have some strong pieces in place that should keep them in the
competitive picture.
The Lock:
Chicago Blackhawks
Last Season's Result: 1st in the West, 2013 Stanley Cup Champions
Additions: Nikolai Khabibulin, G (Edmonton); Antti Raanta, G (SM-liiga)
Subtractions: Dave Bolland, F (Toronto); Ray Emery, G (Philidelphia); Viktor Stalberg, F (Nashville); Michael Frolik, F (Winnipeg); Daniel Carcillo, F (Los Angeles); Jamal Mayers, F (UFA); Henrik Karlsson, G (SHL); Rostislav Olesz, F (Buyout, New Jersey); Steve Montador, D (Buyout, KHL)
Available Cap Space: $2.008 million
What to Expect: The last time the Chicago Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup,
Barack Obama was President of the United States, the iPhone 4 was about to be
the hottest phone on the market, and a little ditty about scantily-clad women from
California performed by a scantily-clad woman from California was on its way to
becoming the top hit of the summer. The world sure was different three years
ago.
And yet, here we are with the Blackhawks back on top of the NHL. While they weren't forced to purge the roster like they did in 2010, dropping 11 of the 23 names on Lord Stanley's Cup among others, they still had a couple of tough decisions to make. While depth players Viktor Stalberg and Michael Frolik were shown the door via free agency and trade, respectively, local headlines revolved around the unrestricted free agencies of third-line winger Bryan Bickell, second-line center Dave Bolland and backup goaltender Ray Emery. Bickell received a vote of confidence from the organisation in the form of a four-year contract but Bolland and Emery were both allowed to walk into the market.
So the Blackhawks enter the 2013-14 season as Cup favourites, as most champions do, but with less holes to fill than the last time around. Bickell is projected to leap into a first-line role while sophomore and Calder Trophy finalist Brandon Saad is receiving a solid opportunity to fill the second-line center position that has given the squad trouble in recent years. Nikolai Khabibulin was welcomed back to the Hawks to give limited relief to starting goaltender Corey Crawford. And while noted face-punchers Daniel Carcillo and Jamal Mayers won't be returning to the lineup, depth players Andrew Shaw, Marcus Kruger, Michal Handzus, and Brandon Bollig will certainly be regulars just as they were last year but with increased roles.
Some questions do still exist for the Blackhawks for the future. This coming year, Jimmy Hayes and Jeremy Morin do seem poised to make the full-time roster. Both have seen time as call-ups in the past two seasons but have yet to put forth a full season of work. Center Brandon Pirri is also knocking on the doorstep for a legitimate shot at the big league and could prove to be a viable second-line option should the Saad experiment fall through. Also goaltender Antti Raanta recently signed on for a year-long deal and, while Khabibulin is slated for the backup role to start the season, the 40-year-old will most likely not shoulder the full weight of relief netminding.
The reason these factors will provide issues for the Blackhawks moving forward is that all of these players, as well as Shaw, are up for new contracts at the conclusion of this season. Should any or all of them warrant a relatively large sum, the question will turn to the extensions Patrick Kane and captain Jonathan Toews are both in for entering the 2015-16 season. Kane and Toews will both most likely accept a hometown discount to remain in Chicago but even with that considered, the pair should see generous raises to their respective $6.3 million cap hits. General Manager Stan Bowman claimed that the pair will be in the organisation "forever" but one shouldn't doubt for a moment that Bowman has his fingers firmly upon the pulse of the salary cap, which is expected to take gradual, but as of yet unpredictable, leaps forward in the coming years.
One thing the Blackhawks can certainly boast about is that their defense is pretty much the exact same as it was last year. With the exception of compliance buyout Steve Montador, who spent his limited ice time with AHL affiliate Rockford, the horses that have been leading Chicago's back end have been in place for several years and will continue to be for at least the next two. Unlike the situation for Kane and Toews, this group shouldn't see as much in the way of raises yet the $8.3 million already split between Johnny Oduya, Nick Leddy, and Michal Rozsival is a hefty sum to pay for the bottom three of anyone's D-core.
So this brings us to the situation in net. Starting in 2014-15, starter Corey Crawford will receive a 6-year, $36 million payday. While the 28-year-old only has 152 regular season games of NHL experience-144 in the past three years as starter-Bowman felt that his .913 SV%, 2.39 GAA numbers over those seasons as well as his Stanley Cup win was enough to make him the sixth highest-paid goaltender in the league. At first glance, this deal seems like a little bit of a gamble given his limited resume and shaky glove-side so time will tell if Crawford was worth the investment.
Because of the two Cups Chicago has won in such a short time, the word "dynasty" starts to pop up in the discussion of this team. While Stan Bowman wasn't the GM that built the framework for the Cup run in 2010, he has done quite a bit to keep it intact. Eight players on the current roster have been major pieces in both championships so there is no argument that Bowman hasn't delivered on his part to make this a yearly competitor. Even with the target they will no doubt have on their backs, the Chicago Blackhawks are still poised to be at the top of the league for years to come.
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