Thursday, August 22, 2013

2-4-T's Preseason Prognosis: Pacific Division Part 2

In anticipation of the coming season, the staff at Two Minutes for Typing will be breaking out our scalpels, slicing the divisions in half, and dissecting each team to see what will be making them tick this year. Of course some appear to be more ready for the rigors of a full 82-game compliment than others. With that in mind, we will be looking through the microscope at who will perish on the operating table, who has a fighting chance under the knife, and who will be sewn, stitched, and sipping ginger ale come playoff time. I present to you 2-4-T's Preseason Prognosis.

The Miss

Calgary Flames

Last Season's Result: 13th in the West

Additions: Karri Ramo, G (KHL); TJ Galiardi, F (San Jose); Kris Russell, D (St. Louis); Shane O'Brien, D (Colorado); David Jones, F (Colorado); Ben Hanowski, F (Pittsburgh)

Subtractions: Jarome Iginlia, F (Pittsburgh); Mikka Kiprusoff, G (Retired); Jay Bouwmeester, D (St. Louis); Alex Tanguay, F (Colorado); Blake Comeau, F (Columbus); Leland Irving, G (SM-liiga); Roman Cervenka, F (UFA); Anton Babchuk, D (KHL); Steve Begin, F (UFA); Danny Taylor, G (SHL)

Available Cap Space: $7.69 million

What To Expect: It took almost a decade but it appears that Calgary has finally admitted that it needs to rebuild. Towards this year’s trade deadline, they shipped out Captain Jarome Iginlia, league-leading active ironman defenceman Jay Bouwmeester, and perennial bottom-six winger Blake Comeau. Nearer still to the end of the season, 36-year-old franchise goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff started sounding like he was going to hang up the skates and become a full-time father. In June, the netminder confirmed that that is his intention, walking away with one more season on his contract. And finally, the team traded winger Alex Tanguay and defenceman Cory Sarich to Colorado.

This must be a bittersweet time for fans of the Flames organization. On one side, you have the sigh of relief that General Manager Jay Feaster is finally admitting that the team isn't built to succeed. On the other side, the realization that it is going to be a long road out of the league’s basement after all the time spent convincing themselves that they were closer than that.

Looking back at the team’s history, there really hasn't been a bright spot to speak of since the 1980s. After the team relocated from Atlanta, Georgia (something sounds familiar here), they had a string of nine seasons in which they qualified for the postseason with two Finals visits culminating in a Stanley Cup win in 1989. However, the Flames made the playoffs six times in the next seven seasons, were ousted in the first round each time, and went on another seven year run where they managed better than fourth in their division only once.

And then the season of 2003-04 happened, when the Western Conference’s sixth-place Flames muscled their way past Vancouver, Detroit, and San Jose to meet the Eastern Conference-leading Tampa Bay Lightning. Controversy took front and center in the infamous Game 6, where a disallowed goal by Calgary haunts fans to this day and Tampa won two straight to take the Cup.

But the NHL decided that a Stanley Cup Final featuring Tampa Bay and Calgary was the reason hockey fans shouldn't be allowed to have nice things. The 2004-05 season lives in the history books as a blank line due to a full season of a lockout. The Flames still thought they had a leg to stand on coming into the 2005-06 season and they proved that the previous season may not have been a fluke with a Northwest Division Championship. This, however, was the beginning of a four-season run with first round exits in the playoffs followed by another four on the outside looking in.

Looking at the 2013-14 Flames, it is highly evident that there is a lot of work ahead. They currently boast a young roster with only backup goaltender Joey MacDonald above the age of 31. The team, however, appears to be completely devoid of a solid core as their top producers Mike Cammalleri, Lee Stempniak, and Jiri Hudler aren't homegrown. The best players they had at every position no longer dress with the “C” ablaze across the chest so it remains to be seen who will break out as the guy or guys to carry this team.

Sven Baertschi is highly touted to be the up-and-coming saviour of the Flames organization but, as an outsider, I am not fully convinced. The sample size is small for the 20-year-old, with only 25 games played in the NHL and 13 points accumulated. On paper, the kid is stellar as far as his junior career is concerned, but he has had some injury issues in his Calgary tenure. On the ice in the past year, he seemed to lack confidence and while he should get a more extended look playing top-six minutes, it is questionable if the group surrounding him will significantly aid in his development moving forward.

Looking at the rest of the Flames roster, it’s hard to tell who is destined for success. They have nine players between 20 and 25 years of age and only forwards TJ Galiardi, Mikael Backland, and defenceman TJ Brodie have over 100 games on their NHL resumes and not one of these three is close to cracking top-tier production. They appear to be trusting goaltender duties to Karri Ramo, who hasn't played an NHL game since 2009, and journeyman backup Joey MacDonald. With 11 NHL seasons of experience between the two, they have a collective record of 50-78-24 over 170 games with a .901 SV% and 3.11 GAA. Ramo has seen his numbers greatly improve in his four seasons with Omsk Avangard but until he proves his worth on NHL ice, he just serves as another question mark heading into the 2013-14 season.

The first step to solving a problem is admitting you have a problem and the Calgary Flames have reached that point. If you follow this franchise, prepare for several years of heartache. Everyone needs to rebuild eventually and the process sure as shootin' takes a lot of time and patience.

The Hopeful:

Edmonton Oilers

Last Season's Result: 12th in the West

Additions: David Perron, F (St. Louis); Andrew Ference, D (Boston); Jason Labarbera, G (Phoenix); Anton Belov, D (KHL); Denis Grebeshkov, D (KHL); Philip Larsen, D (Dallas)

Subtractions: Magnus Paajarvi, F (St. Louis); Nikolai Khabibulin, G (Chicago); Ryan Whitney, D (UFA); Eric Belanger, F (Buyout); Mark Fistric, D (Anaheim); Theo Peckham, D (Chicago); Teemu Hartikainen, F (KHL); Lennart Petrell, F (NLA)

Available Cap Space: $1.348 million

What To Expect: The first thing that comes to mind when I think of the Edmonton Oilers last season is a quote from Ken Dryden during the 1980 Miracle on Ice game. “It's one thing to be young and promising and quite another to be good.” This is the year the Oilers cross over from young and talented and start winning games. The young players for the Oilers have begun to step up their game to a true NHL level. The addition of David Perron rounds out the top 6 and puts them in a position to compete with other top forward groups throughout the Pacific Division and also the league. 

The Oilers have been looking for the spark to make it into the playoffs for a number of seasons. The main thing that has kept them competitive as of late is the talented draft acquisitions acquired first overall in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Rookie head coach Dallas Eakins is taking over the reins from former coach Ralph Kruger moving into 2013-14. This should pay instant dividends to the likes of Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, and Justin Schultz as Eakins has a very strong philosophy centered on fitness and compete levels.

Although the Oilers outscored 5 playoff teams in the west, the defensive zone was a subject that had to be addressed. GM Craig MacTavish went looking outside of the standard free agent market in order to bolster his blue line. MacTavish signed Denis Grebeshkov and Philip Larsen, bringing them back to the NHL from Europe and KHL free agent Anton Belov. By bringing in these three players, first round pick Darnell Nurse will be afforded the opportunity to continue his development in the OHL.

There are two main aspects that are still up in the air that could define the Edmonton Oilers' entire season. Will Eakins be able to gain the respect of the entire dressing room, and can Devin Dubnyk be as stellar as he needs to be between the pipes? Eakins should mesh well with the younger players, however his lacking NHL resume could be an issue with more veteran personalities on the team. As far as the goal crease is concerned, Dubnyk is still settling in as an NHL starter and will have to work hard to keep that spot from going to Jason Labarbera, the much younger but less proven backup option compared to Nikolai Khabibulin. In 2011-2012 Dubnyk went 20-20-3 (2.67 GAA, .914 SV%) and in 2012-2013 went 14-16-6 (2.57 GAA, .921 SV%). We could see a lot more work out of Dubnyk and he should be ready to shoulder that burden. However, Edmonton has struggled with goaltenders in the past.

Edmonton has done a lot of things right to move themselves into a winning position in 2013-14. MacTavish has brought in support pieces to round out the forward group and bolster the less than perfect defense. Despite being GM for a few months, MacTavish is no stranger to the Oilers organization as a player, a coach, and a senior member of hockey operations. The moves he has made since April are sure to make a splash once the season is underway.

Aside from the players added, more commitment and determination has been injected into the dressing room with Dallas Eakins holding the syringe. Eakins, drawing from his work turning around the Maple Leafs' AHL affiliate Toronto Marlies, should quickly settle into his role behind the bench and take command of a team that could learn a lot from his philosophy. Outside of the hockey world, Eakins recently finished a 104 mi. (167 km.) bike race through Rockey Mountain terrain. While he himself is an avid fitness freak, he expects his players to be even more in shape than he is.

Eakins was quoted saying "Just being talented is not enough. I want our players to be so fit that if I ask a forward to play 26 minutes a night, he can play 26 minutes at a high level. Thats something I'm extremely passionate about it. That will probably be a bit of a challenge on the buy-in, but it's non-negotiable." Eakins still has to look at his goalie situation and decide on a number one between 27-year-old Dubnyk and 33-year old Labarbera but aside from that he has the tools to make the Oilers successful. Even if Dubynk is not as strong as he may like to be, the Oilers are definitely in the mix to make the playoffs in 2014. We’ll just have to wait and see what the rest of the Pacific Division has to say about that.

The Lock:

Anaheim Ducks

Last Season's Result: 2nd in the West, Lost to the Detroit Red Wings during the Western Conference Quarter Finals in 7 games

Additions: Dustin Penner, F (Los Angeles); Jakob Silfverberg, F (Ottawa); Mark Fistric, D (Edmonton)

Subtractions: Bobby Ryan, F (Ottawa); Toni Lydman, D (UFA); David Steckel, F (UFA)

Available Cap Space: $3.474 million

What To Expect: The Anaheim Ducks always seem to be a team not very many people put too much thought to even when they do well. In the old Pacific, one mostly assumed the Kings and the Sharks would battle for top honors, the Coyotes should do well if they get an elite performance from their goaltender, are the Stars rebuilding or not (?) and, oh yeah, there’s a team in Anaheim too. Since they won the Cup in 2007, they've been good enough to make the playoffs four out of six times but not great enough to really be considered a threat. While the team still has some things to figure out with their lineup, they deserve more consideration that I feel they receive.

Part of the reason the Ducks get glossed over is that most of the news constitutes the retirement speculation surrounding Teemu Selanne every offseason. Selanne has played in the NHL for 20 seasons and while he has had cups of coffee with other teams during his tenure, he is far and away the franchise record holder in all scoring categories. At 43 years of age, he is still capable on a second line role but the 48-game season showed that he may not have the gas in the tank to take on the rigors of one more full year. The admiration for Selanne is universal around the league and, as of this writing, he has not made the decision to return just yet but with interconference play opening up again this year, it would surely be a treat to see Selanne make his final victory lap.

The determining factor in Selanne’s return appears to be how Head Coach Bruce Boudreau plans to utilize the seasoned veteran. While he has accumulated a stellar regular season record as a bench boss, his under-performance in the postseason as well as his mediocre start to the 2011-12 season lead to his dismissal from Washington. Barely missing a beat, he was picked up by Anaheim who had a 7-13-4 record before his appointment and improved their trend with a 27-23-8 record following that juncture. In 2012-13, he coached the Ducks to the third-best record in the league behind the high-powered Penguins and the unstoppable Blackhawks.

A feather in the cap of Anaheim’s success in the past year was the flexibility Boudreau had with his top six forward group. More often than not, Selanne, Sakku Koivu, and Bobby Ryan held the second line while Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf were the mainstays on the first. However, Boudreau showed a competent ability to cycle players around due to the occasional injury as well as recognition of his players' hot streaks. Kyle Palmieri, Andrew Cogliano, Nick Bonino, and even Daniel Winnik received the chance to log significant minutes alongside the star players and typically made the most of that time. Rookie Emerson Etem got a solid look with the club playing in the bottom six and started to settle into a healthy groove, logging 15 points in 45 games with 5 of those points tallied in the 7-game playoff series against Detroit.

The locker room should also be a relatively healthy place this year for the Ducks. For the past few years, winger Bobby Ryan has been a regular in the trade rumour mill to the point that he became frustrated with the team’s management. When Daniel Alfredsson walked away from the Ottawa Senators, Ryan was promptly dealt to fill the void in Canada’s capital city. Coming back the other way was sophomore Jakob Silfverberg, prospect Stefan Noesen, and Ottawa’s 2014 first-round pick. Silfverberg ensured a regular spot on the roster last year with the myriad of injuries to the Sens and should be poised to build on his strong performance. Noesen and the pick certainly help to bolster the Ducks’ depth in the system which is ranked very well compared to the majority of the division.

The story to watch this year in Anaheim is how things will play out in net. Viktor Fasth was arguably the best non-rookie first-year player after starter Jonas Hiller faltered early on. The pair had records which were carbon-copies of each other were it not for Fasth’s two fewer starts and two fewer overtime losses. Still, Fasth earned himself a generous 2-year, $5.8 million contract behind a .921 SV% and a 2.18 GAA which both eclipsed Hiller’s results. With Hiller entering the final year of his current contract, he is certainly playing for not only his position as the starter but also his spot on the team and both are his to lose at this point.

Anaheim is absolutely in a position to repeat their strong showing from last season. Their defense took a hit by losing Sheldon Souray for the first two months of the season but if the duo in the crease can maintain pace at stopping pucks then the Ducks make a potent argument to linger around the top of the division. They currently are two roster spots too many-three if Teemu resigns-so they will have to make some decisions by the end of training camp. With five players on two-way contracts they have the option to send some of the younger players down to the minors instead of cutting ties with any of their role players. And in this their 20th season in the league, with the team slotted to appear in “Mighty Ducks” throwback jerseys for at least one home game, what’s not to be excited about for the team from Anaheim this year?

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