If you take a look, the Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers have a good amount in common. They have had several high draft picks in the past few years, both saw recent changes in the front office and behind the bench, they both ice a majority of younger players on any given night, and both are now facing new opponents after the dissolution of the Northwest Division.
After finishing the 2012-13 season 29th and 24th, respectively to Colorado and Edmonton, it could be agreed that both teams are in the midst of rebuilding. We knew very well that Edmonton was seeing some growing pains as they have had three consecutive number 1 draft picks while struggling to gain competitive relevance in the league, but nothing formal had been assumed for the Colorado organisation until 4-year head coach Joe Sacco was relieved of his duties this summer.
The early season results for both teams aren't quite what we may expect, however. The Oilers Watch is a yearly occurrence as we await the maturation point for the promising young talent in the Copper and Blue, and yet they sit at the basement of the Pacific. The Colorado Avalanche, on the other hand, jumped out to a 10-1-0 record through the month of October and remain in the conversation to this day with 43 points in a league-low 31 games played.
So what is contributing to Colorado's success that Edmonton is missing? Let's take a look and see what we can find out.
The Basics
The Avalanche currently sit with a 21-9-1 record, splitting to 10-5-1 at home and 11-4-0 away. In total, they have scored a total of 88 goals with 73 against and, while ranking 24th and 22nd, respectively, in Power Play and Penalty Kill effectiveness, they are 7th-best in the league at even strength with 1.33 goals scored for every 1 goal against. Also of note, Colorado has won every game in which they have scored first instead of one, their lone overtime loss, and have won 86.7% of the games in which they have been out-shot, good for 2nd in that category.
The Oilers have not seen similar success, sporting a worst-in-the-West 11-21-3 record between 5-10-1 at Rexall Place and 6-11-2 on the road. They have scored 93 goals overall, which is 12th-best in the league, but are haunted by their last-overall 120 goals allowed. The team is fairly average on special teams, 14th on the PP at 18.1% and 17th on the PK at 81.7% but the red flag flies with their numbers in even strength. At 5v5, the Oilers score 1.57 goals/game but allow 2.31 goals/game. Edmonton also struggles to finish games, winning 42.9% of their games when scoring first which joins the Islanders and Sabres as the only teams below 50% in that statistic.
Goaltending
It's tough to find a pair that is holding their own in net as much as Semyon Varlamov and Jean-Sebastien Giguere. In 22 starts, Varlamov has placed a 14-8-1 record on his resume while Giguere has been succeeding in his backup duty while going 7-1-0 in 9 starts. Each have been pulled only once and both occurred on November 14 in the same 7-3 loss to St. Louis. Holding up those records are the 2.40 and 1.84 GAA's, .923 and .940 SV%'s to Varlamov and Giguere, respectively. In his 22 starts, Varly has allowed more than 3 goals in four occurrences and has allowed exactly 3 in only four more of those starts while Giggy boasts 1 and 1 in both situations. It isn't an even tandem, but so far you can bet that either goaltender will give the Avs a chance to win on any given night.
Things have been a little more interesting in Edmonton this year. In the offseason, the team allowed aging veteran Nikolai Khabibulin to hit free agency while acquiring backups Jason Labarbera and Richard Bachman. While Devan Dubnyk was assumed to take the lion's share of starts, going 9-14-2 in 24 starts to date, neither relief netminder has proven their effectiveness with a combined 1-5-1 in 7 starts. I'd bore you with numbers but they're just, well, not very good. (Well, I could easily argue that Bachman wasn't given much of a chance but he was on a two-way deal to begin with and Edmonton doesn't seem to be looking for a future solution to an immediate need.) This lead to the Oilers sending Bachman to AHL purgatory and also waiving-and recently trading-Labarbera to set the stage for...
Ilya Bryzgalov! Oh yes, he's back folks. After being bought out following last season and starting this season without a deal, the Oilers signed the polarising Russian to a deal at the start of November. He received a conditioning stint with the Oklahoma City Barons, playing two games and splitting to a 1-1 record with a 3.03 GAA and a .880 SV% before receiving the call-up. He relieved Dubnyk on November 25 in a losing effort to the Chicago Blackhawks and started his first game three days later, shutting out the Nashville Predators while facing 33 shots. But before anyone could get too excited, he turned around and allowed 4 goals in 2 periods the following night to Columbus and suffered an upper-body injury in his third start on December 1 despite only allowing 1 goal on 29 shots. The jury is still out on whether Bryz can be the cure for what ails them in the crease, but the goaltending sure isn't holding up its end of the bargain.
Skating
Goaltending can keep a team in a game and even steal one, but what about the players navigating the 200 feet of ice? To start, neither team out-shoots their opponent very frequently. Colorado averages 29.3 shots/game and 31.3 shots-against/game while Edmonton has reached 28.4 and 30.9 for the same metrics. Not shockingly telling, but Colorado does tend to run a marginally tighter ship. Still, let's take a look at what the possession stats have to tell us about the disparity between the two teams.
The Avalanche generate 53.2 Corsi events while facing 57.4 Corsi events, all within 60 minutes of all 5v5 situations. But at 5v5 situations with the score close (tied or within a goal in the first two periods, tied in the third), Colorado generates 56.2 Corsi events while facing 56.4 Corsi events per 60 minutes. When the Avalanche are trailing on the scoreboard, they manage 63.8 Corsi events while allowing 48.4 Corsi events, again in 5v5 situations. Only four teams in the league put up more Corsi events than they allow while leading, Colorado isn't one of them, but this is not surprising since teams tend to sit back on offence when holding the lead. What should be noted, however, is that Colorado has the second-highest PDO with the lead in the league at 104.2. Colorado isn't a strong possession team at the outset but they are making the most of their opportunities because they work to generate them.
To start off, Edmonton is looking at 49.3 Corsi for versus 56.7 Corsi against at 60 minutes of all 5v5 situations. Things don't get better with a manageable score, where they present 50.5 Corsi events for while seeing 60.3 Corsi events against per 60 minutes. When trailing, the Oilers activate a little better with 52.1 Corsi for and 51.0 Corsi against per 60 minutes. Edmonton's best PDO comes in at 979 but that covers the wide swath of all 5v5 situations and doesn't tell us much other than proving their poor performance. Edmonton is having trouble maintaining possession no matter where they are in the game and struggle to hold leads or even keep things within reach on a regular basis.
Accountability
This part is purely speculative-I'm not in the respective locker rooms so who am I anyways?-but I think some performances are indicative of what brings these teams to where we see them now.
Last season when Colorado was floundering at the league's basement, Jean-Sebastien Giguere called his younger team members out for focusing on their offseason vacation plans instead of the season's final games, however meaningless they may have been. And then in May, the organisation hired Hall-of-Famer and ex-Av Patrick Roy to man the bench and boy, did he go viral in his debut by pushing over the bench divider between himself and Bruce Boudreau of Anaheim. In a game Colorado absolutely owned, mind you. While it can be argued that this is a horrible example of in-game composure, the passionate outburst certainly helped spark the Avs to their hot start.
Gabriel Landeskog has also been a reflection on the success of his team. In 2012, he was the youngest player in NHL history to be named captain. During the 2012-13 season, he dressed for only 36 of 48 games and his stat-line struggled at 9 goals, 8 assists, and a -4 rating. This year he seems to be growing into the role, scoring 9 goals with 13 helpers in 30 games and a +7. Despite his age, Landeskog is proving he is up for the role of leading his team while maintaining his duties as an offencive contributor in critical moments.
The hiring of Dallas Eakins to head coach of the Oilers was lauded across the hockey world. He saw success in the Toronto Marlies organisation and was seen as a highly viable option to corral the young squad into the win column. I won't call Eakins accountable just yet but I do have to wonder if there are issues in the dressing room hanging over the team's heads.
Andrew Ference was brought in from Boston during the offseason and was handed the captaincy just prior to the start of the season. In his early tenure, Ference is poised to see a career-low point-per-game pace while finding the penalty box with a greater frequency, including 3 fights in the past month. Fighting is seen as one way to light a fire under a roster that is underperforming but, given the culture of losing that has surrounded the franchise over the past few years, this isn't what the team needs, especially from a leader. Ference has been in the league since the 1999-2000 season, seeing 3 Stanley Cup Finals and winning once, but isn't translating his past success well to this point.
I point this out because a similar thing happened in Chicago during last year's playoffs. Captain Jonathan Toews entered Game 4 in the second round against Detroit with no goals and only 3 assists. Toews boiled over in the second period, committing three consecutive infractions in a span of 5:34. When he received his third penalty, defenceman Brent Seabrook paid a visit to the box to offer some calming words the captain. Toews would collect his first postseason goal and two more assists in the final 3 games of the series as the Blackhawks would propel themselves ahead of the Red Wings to the next round and an eventual Stanley Cup victory.
Looking at the Oilers, I can't say who could fill a similar leadership role but they are clearly suffering from a lack of it. The team named six alternate captains for opening night, and while the names on the list mainly encompass who is seen as the future of the organisation, I'm starting to think the young squad isn't seeing eye-to-eye on how to turn their fortunes around.
Conclusion
When I look at Colorado and Edmonton, I have to point at different levels of discipline and maturity propping up one team while plaguing the other. I won't go so far as to suggest that either squad boasts the completeness of a contender-both need help on the blue line and Colorado has things more figured out in the crease-but the numbers tell us that Colorado is finding ways to do more with less. We'll keep an eye on both teams as things progress but at this point in the season there is enough evidence to deduce the direction each team is facing.
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