One thing I love about sports, and part of the reason you
watch whether you realise it or not, is seeing a team defy all odds. It’s why
you pull for the underdog during the Superbowl, or you cheer on any team
playing the Boston Red Sox or New York Yankees, or pop in your “Mighty Ducks” VHS
tapes every once in a while. If every game went to the best team on paper then
there would be no point in playing, would there?
But while this is an easy attitude to have during any
isolated event, the statistics tend to catch up over a big enough sample size. Every
sports team in the history of forever has preached the “just focus on every
play/shift/possession at a time” but those, good or bad, add up as a season
progresses and more often than not we can start to weed out the pretenders from the contenders given a decently-sized body of work.
So this naturally brings us to the Toronto Maple Leafs. We
knew something was up last year, when the team shimmied into a 5th seed after posting a 21-10-5 record while being outshot and only managing a
5-7-0 when outshooting the other team. That’s 36 games over a 48-game season in
which they saw more rubber than they presented, in case you need me to spell that one out.
Only two other teams last year managed a playoff bid while
being outshot for over half of last season’s games. Washington chased the play
for 34 games and Vancouver did the same for 27 games. Both, mind you, feasted
off of their weaker division opponents (Washington 15-3-0 over the Southeast,
Vancouver 11-6-1 against the Northwest), and both, like Toronto, saw
first-round exits.
Toronto saw success early on in this season, entering
November 10-4-0 as 1st place in the Eastern Conference. After watching the calendar flip to December, they sat 5th in the Atlantic Division on top of a 14-10-3 record, comfortably in a playoff Wild Card spot thanks to the
rocky start of their neighbors in the Metropolitan.
After the Winter Classic on January 1st, Toronto
leapfrogged over Detroit for 4th in the Atlantic by virtue of a
shootout win in the outdoor contest.
On January 9th, however, Toronto was bumped to the
bubble for the first time of the season. Detroit rebounded in their next game
to retake the 4-spot and remain there despite a 4-1 loss to San Jose. In the
Metropolitan, Philadelphia has seen a recent surge up to the 2nd spot, Washington gained some traction with a late goal by Eric Fehr over Tampa
last night, Carolina is riding a 5-game winning streak, and the Rangers, tied
in points with the Leafs, are waiting in the wings to steal any thunder should
anyone fall off in the race. All the while, Toronto hasn’t won since their
messy win at the Big House in Michigan.
While we sit with just under 40 games to go before we hit
the postseason, this all points to a leveling-off in stat-world
To date, the Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t seen the same stroke
of luck as far as shooting ratios go. When outshot, they sport a 17-14-5 record
to date, a .472 win percentage. In games in which they outshoot the opposition,
they have only maintained a 4-4-0 record, which easily calculates to .500. With
only one game in which they have equaled the shots of their opponent, a loss no
less, they outshoot the other team only 17.8% of the time.
The Leafs average 27.2 shots per contest, weighing in at 5th-worst
in the league. What they do manage to do worst in the league is allow shots on
net, a 36.4 clip. This bleeds into their scoring rates as well, where they bury
the puck at a rate of 2.28 per game and flip to the other side of the coin at 2.58 against per game.
Switching the conversation from pure shot to possession
metrics, they fare in the realm of terrible. On all 5v5 situations, the Leafs
sit at a -13.7 Corsi rating and -10.1 Fenwick per 60 minutes. Things shift
slightly worse when the score is close 5v5, where they see a -15.1 Corsi and a -10.6
Fenwick per 60 minutes. These results all place them worst in the league in
these categories. What’s more, if you shave their all 5v5 situations numbers in
half, you still haven’t reached the first playoff team at the low-end of the
spectrum (which is Tampa Bay, who have been missing their top shooter in Steven Stamkos since
early November).
(Ed. Note: I am experimenting with different statistic
sources to familiarise myself with new ways of notation on advanced statistics
as well as attempting to bring in different information to my analyses so you are most certainly seeing me present things differently. Since
this is the case, expect a full discourse-a tutorial for those unfamiliar and
the rationale for those who wish to delve further down the rabbit hole-on the
advanced stats that I use in the week ahead.)
Part of the reason they are even in the conversation to
begin with is that they are receiving pretty excellent goaltending from the
tandem of Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer. Bernier, who appears to have
stolen the starting job outright, is bringing a .926 SV% and 2.58 GAA to the
table while Reimer, in his 20 appearances, has a .918 SV% and 3.08 GAA. These
save percentages place the pair 7th and 12th,
respectively, among netminders with 19 or more starts.
To put things another way, as a team the Maple Leafs score
7.98% of the shots that reach the net at 5v5 in close situations. They get
scored on at a rate of 6.25% of the shots that hit their own net under the same
parameter. This might look favourable on the surface but take a moment to think
about how this applies to their output: for every 100 shots they put on net in close situations
they score almost 8 goals but for every 100 shots they face, over 6 pucks hit
the twine. On average, it takes them almost 4 whole games to reach the 100-shot
mark, but they see 100 shots before a third game is all said and done. 1.995
goals for to 2.083 goals against is a little too close for comfort when the
games become more and more important if you ask me. This might be manageable in
the short term but over an 82-game season, asking a pair of unproven
25-year-olds to bail out a punchless offence is an ill-advised gamble to be
taking.
Something has to give here heading down towards the end of
the season and statistical confidence is most certainly not in their favour.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been driving the advanced stat community
absolutely nuts for the greater part of 2013 but regression is not a kind
mistress when she comes a-knockin’. In their last three games, they have been
outscored 18-5 and while this may be a small sample size in and of itself, they
can’t afford to take a blow such as they did in the standings as the playoff
races heat up for those low seeds.
Toronto plays 15 more games prior to the Olympic break,
including tonight’s contest in the United States’ capital city, so we may not
have reached panic mode yet but this squad is going to have to back up their
past fortunes with some tangible effort and skill in order to continue their
course.
All statistics compiled
from NHL.com, extraskater.com, and stats.hockeyanalysis.com
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